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Attributing Returns and Optimising United States Swaps Portfolios Using an Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Model of the Yield Curve

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  • Leo Krippner

    ()
    (AMP Capital Investors)

Abstract

This paper uses the volatility-adjusted orthonormalised Laguerre polynomial model of the yield curve (the VAO model) from Krippner (2005), an intertemporally-consistent and arbitrage-free version of the popular Nelson and Siegel (1987) model, to develop a multi-dimensional yield-curve-based risk framework for fixed interest portfolios. The VAO model is also used to identify relative value (i.e. potential excess returns) from the universe of securities that define the yield curve. In combination, these risk and return elements provide an intuitive framework for attributing portfolio returns ex-post, and for optimising portfolios ex-ante. The empirical applications are to six years of daily United States interest rate swap data. The first application shows that the main sources of fixed interest portfolio risk (i.e. unanticipated variability in ex-post returns) are first-order (‘duration’) effects from stochastic shifts in the level and shape of the yield curve; second-order (‘convexity’) effects and other contributions are immaterial. The second application shows that fixed interest portfolios optimised ex-ante using the VAO model risk/relative framework significantly outperform a naive evenly-weighted benchmark over time.

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File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/0503.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 05/03.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 11 Mar 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:05/03

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Keywords: yield curve; term structure; fixed interest securities; portfolio optimisation; interest rate swaps;

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  1. Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
  2. Chambers, Donald R. & Carleton, Willard T. & McEnally, Richard W., 1988. "Immunizing Default-Free Bond Portfolios with a Duration Vector," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 89-104, March.
  3. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Fisher, Lawrence & Weil, Roman L, 1971. "Coping with the Risk of Interest-Rate Fluctuations: Returns to Bondholders from Naive and Optimal Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(4), pages 408-31, October.
  5. Michael J. Fleming, 2001. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Staff Reports 133, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Soto, Gloria M., 2001. "Immunization derived from a polynomial duration vector in the Spanish bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1037-1057, June.
  7. Roger J. Bowden, 1997. "Generalising Interest Rate Duration with Directional Derivatives: Direction X and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(5), pages 586-595, May.
  8. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  9. Ioannides, Michalis, 2003. "A comparison of yield curve estimation techniques using UK data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
  10. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
  11. Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  12. Nawalkha, Sanjay K. & Soto, Gloria M. & Zhang, Jun, 2003. "Generalized M-vector models for hedging interest rate risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1581-1604, August.
  13. Ronn, Ehud I., 1987. "A New Linear Programming Approach to Bond Portfolio Management," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(04), pages 439-466, December.
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