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Arbitrage Opportunities in Arbitrage-Free Models of Bond Pricing

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  • Backus, David
  • Foresi, Silverio
  • Zin, Stanley

Abstract

Mathematical models of bond pricing are used by both academics and Wall Street practitioners, with practitioners introducing time-dependent parameters to fit 'arbitrage-free' models to selected asset prices. The authors show, in a simple one-factor setting, that the ability of such models to reproduce a subset of security prices need not extend to state-contingent claims more generally. They argue that the additional parameters of arbitrage-free models should be complemented by close attention to fundamentals, which might include mean reversion, multiple factors, stochastic volatility, and/or nonnormal interest-rate distributions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 16 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 13-26

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:16:y:1998:i:1:p:13-26

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References

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  1. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  3. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
  4. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1979. "A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 133-155, July.
  5. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 235-254, June.
  6. Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
  7. Cooley, T.F. & LeRoy, S.F., 1991. "Pricing Interest-Sensitive Claims when Interest Rates Have Stationary Components," Papers 91-02, Rochester, Business - General.
  8. Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
  9. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1988. "The information in forward rates : Implications for models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-70, May.
  10. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-29, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jonathan Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1998. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," NBER Working Papers 6627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  3. Teresa Corzo Santamaría & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2005. "Nonparametric estimation of convergence of interest rates: Effects on bond pricing," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 167-190, 09.
  4. Orazio Di Miscia, 2005. "Term structure of interest models: concept and estimation problem in a continuous-time setting," Finance 0504017, EconWPA.
  5. Eli M. Remolona & Joseph Dziwura & Irene Pedraza, 1995. "The short end of the forward convergence curve and asymmetric cat's tail convergence," Research Paper 9523, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Dennis Kristensen, 2004. "A Semiparametric Single-Factor Model of the Term Structure," FMG Discussion Papers dp501, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Michael W. Brandt & Amir Yaron, 2003. "Time-Consistent No-Arbitrage Models of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 9458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Orazio Di Miscia, 2005. "Estimation of continuous-time interest rate models: a nonparametric approach," Finance 0504015, EconWPA.
  9. Zhang, Xibin & Brooks, Robert D. & King, Maxwell L., 2009. "A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 21-32, November.
  10. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2012. "The Meiselman forward interest rate revision regression as an Affine Term Structure Model," Discussion Papers 12/27, Department of Economics, University of York.
  11. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
  12. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1998. "Discrete-Time Models of Bond Pricing," NBER Working Papers 6736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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