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A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation

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  • Xibin Zhang

    ()

  • Robert D. Brooks

    ()

  • Maxwell L. King

    ()

Abstract

Multivariate kernel regression is an important tool for investigating the relationship between a response and a set of explanatory variables. It is generally accepted that the performance of a kernel regression estimator largely depends on the choice of bandwidth rather than the kernel function. This nonparametric technique has been employed in a number of empirical studies including the state-price density estimation pioneered by Aït-Sahalia and Lo (1998). However, the widespread usefulness of multivariate kernel regression has been limited by the difficulty in computing a data-driven bandwidth. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is presented to sample the bandwidth vector and other parameters in a multivariate kernel regression model. A Monte Carlo study shows that the proposed bandwidth selector is more accurate than the rule-of-thumb bandwidth selector known as the normal reference rule according to Scott (1992) and Bowman and Azzalini (1997). The proposed bandwidth selection algorithm is applied to a multivariate kernel regression model that is often used to estimate the state-price density of Arrow-Debreu securities. When applying the proposed method to the S&P 500 index options and the DAX index options, we find that for short-maturity options, the proposed Bayesian bandwidth selector produces an obviously different state-price density from the one produced by using a subjective bandwidth selector discussed in Aït-Sahalia and Lo (1998).

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2007/wp11-07.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 11/07.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2007-11

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Keywords: Black-Scholes formula; Likelihood; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Posterior density.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Oliver Morell & Dennis Otto & Roland Fried, 2013. "On robust cross-validation for nonparametric smoothing," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 1617-1637, August.
  2. Filippone, Maurizio & Sanguinetti, Guido, 2011. "Approximate inference of the bandwidth in multivariate kernel density estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(12), pages 3104-3122, December.
  3. Zhang, Xibin & King, Maxwell L. & Shang, Han Lin, 2014. "A sampling algorithm for bandwidth estimation in a nonparametric regression model with a flexible error density," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 218-234.
  4. Song Li & Mervyn J. Silvapulle & Param Silvapulle & Xibin Zhang, 2012. "Bayesian Approaches to Non-parametric Estimation of Densities on the Unit Interval," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  5. Feng, Guohua & Zhang, Xiaohui, 2014. "Returns to scale at large banks in the US: A random coefficient stochastic frontier approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 135-145.
  6. Rong Zhang & Brett A. Inder & Xibin Zhang, 2012. "Parameter estimation for a discrete-response model with double rules of sample selection: A Bayesian approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  7. Han Shang, 2014. "Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a semi-functional partial linear regression model with unknown error density," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 829-848, June.
  8. Shang, Han Lin, 2013. "Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a nonparametric functional regression model with unknown error density," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 185-198.
  9. Anastasios Panagiotelis & Michael S. Smith & Peter J Danaher, 2013. "From Amazon to Apple: Modeling Online Retail Sales, Purchase Incidence and Visit Behavior," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  10. Rong Zhang & Brett A. Inder & Xibin Zhang, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of a discrete response model with double rules of sample selection," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  11. Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King & Han Lin Shang, 2011. "Bayesian estimation of bandwidths for a nonparametric regression model with a flexible error density," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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