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Non-linear Error Correction and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Case of German Dual-Class Shares

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  • Jörg Breitung
  • Christian Wulff

Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis implies that (risk-adjusted) asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting too far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the non-linear error correction mechanism (ECM). Such a process tolerates small deviations from the long-run relationship. For more substantial deviations, an effective adjustment process pushes the diverging prices towards their fundamental relationship. In this paper parametric and non-parametric techniques are employed to investigate the ECM between prices of voting and non-voting stocks. Despite its intuitive appeal, we find little evidence for a non-linear relationship between German dual-class shares. Only in four out of 12 cases does the threshold ECM yield a substantial improvement of fit. In other cases, the evidence for non-linearity is rather weak and the threshold ECM fails to outperform the linear model. Copyright Verein fü Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 2 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 419-434

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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:2:y:2001:i:4:p:419-434

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  2. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  3. Dittmann, Ingolf, 1998. "Fractional cointegration of voting and non-voting shares," Technical Reports 1998,40, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  4. Gardiol, Lucien & Gibson-Asner, Rajna & Tuchschmid, Nils S., 1997. "Are liquidity and corporate control priced by shareholders? Empirical evidence from Swiss dual class shares," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 299-323, December.
  5. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  6. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  7. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
  8. Roger M. Kunz & James J. Angel, 1996. "Factors Affecting the Value of Stock Voting Rights: Evidence from the Swiss Equity Market," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), Fall.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  10. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  12. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
  13. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  14. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  15. Breitung, Jörg & Wulff, Christian, 1999. "Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis: The case of German dual-class shares," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,67, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  16. repec:wop:humbsf:1999-67 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Breitung, Jörg & Wulff, Christian, 1999. "Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis: The case of German dual-class shares," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,67, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  2. Zhang, Xibin & Brooks, Robert D. & King, Maxwell L., 2009. "A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 21-32, November.
  3. Bayer, Christian, 2008. "On the interaction of financial frictions and fixed capital adjustment costs: Evidence from a panel of German firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3538-3559, November.

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