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Non-linear Error Correction and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Case of German Dual-Class Shares

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  • Jörg Breitung
  • Christian Wulff

Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis implies that (risk-adjusted) asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting too far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the non-linear error correction mechanism (ECM). Such a process tolerates small deviations from the long-run relationship. For more substantial deviations, an effective adjustment process pushes the diverging prices towards their fundamental relationship. In this paper parametric and non-parametric techniques are employed to investigate the ECM between prices of voting and non-voting stocks. Despite its intuitive appeal, we find little evidence for a non-linear relationship between German dual-class shares. Only in four out of 12 cases does the threshold ECM yield a substantial improvement of fit. In other cases, the evidence for non-linearity is rather weak and the threshold ECM fails to outperform the linear model. Copyright Verein fü Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 2 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 419-434

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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:2:y:2001:i:4:p:419-434

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  1. Ingolf Dittmann, 2001. "Fractional cointegration of voting and non-voting shares," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 321-332.
  2. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  3. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  4. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  5. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
  6. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  7. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
  8. Roger M. Kunz & James J. Angel, 1996. "Factors Affecting the Value of Stock Voting Rights: Evidence from the Swiss Equity Market," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), Fall.
  9. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  10. Jörg Breitung & Christian Wulff, 2001. "Non-linear Error Correction and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Case of German Dual-Class Shares," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 419-434, November.
  11. repec:wop:humbsf:1999-67 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
  13. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  16. Gardiol, Lucien & Gibson-Asner, Rajna & Tuchschmid, Nils S., 1997. "Are liquidity and corporate control priced by shareholders? Empirical evidence from Swiss dual class shares," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 299-323, December.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Xibin Zhang & Robert D. Brooks & Maxwell L. King, 2007. "A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  2. Breitung, Jörg & Wulff, Christian, 1999. "Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis: The case of German dual-class shares," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,67, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  3. Bayer, Christian, 2008. "On the interaction of financial frictions and fixed capital adjustment costs: Evidence from a panel of German firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3538-3559, November.

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