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Nonparametric Specification Testing for Continuous-Time Models with Applications to Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Author Info
Yongmiao Hong
Abstract

We develop a nonparametric specification test for continuous-time models using the transition density. Using a data transform and correcting for the boundary bias of kernel estimators, our test is robust to serial dependence in data and provides excellent finite sample performance. Besides univariate diffusion models, our test is applicable to a wide variety of continuous-time and discrete-time dynamic models, including time-inhomogeneous diffusion, GARCH, stochastic volatility, regime-switching, jump-diffusion, and multivariate diffusion models. A class of separate inference procedures is also proposed to help gauge possible sources of model misspecification. We strongly reject a variety of univariate diffusion models for daily Eurodollar spot rates and some popular multivariate affine term structure models for monthly U.S. Treasury yields. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhh006
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Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 18 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 37-84
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:18:y:2005:i:1:p:37-84

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  1. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson & Walter Distaso, 2006. "Predictive Inference for Integrated Volatility," Departmental Working Papers 200616, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Arapis, Manuel & Gao, Jiti, 2004. "Empirical comparisons in short-term interest rate models using nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 11974, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Xibin Zhang & Robert D. Brooks & Maxwell L. King, 2007. "A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Veronika Czellar & G. Andrew Karolyi & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2005. "Indirect Robust Estimation of the Short-term Interest Rate Process;," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2005.02, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève. [Downloadable!]
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