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Nonparametric filtering of conditional state-price densities

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  • Dalderop, Jeroen

Abstract

This paper studies the use of noisy high-frequency data to estimate the time-varying state-price density implicit in European option prices. A dynamic kernel estimator of the conditional pricing function and its derivatives is proposed that can be used for model-free risk measurement. Infill asymptotic theory is derived that applies when the pricing function is either smoothly varying or driven by diffusive state variables. Trading times and moneyness levels are modeled by marked point processes that capture intraday trading patterns. A simulation study investigates the performance of the estimator using a varying plug-in bandwidth in various scenarios. Empirical analysis using S&P 500 E-mini European option quotes reveals significant time-variation at intraday frequencies. An application towards delta- and minimum variance-hedging further illustrates the use of the estimator.

Suggested Citation

  • Dalderop, Jeroen, 2020. "Nonparametric filtering of conditional state-price densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 295-325.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:214:y:2020:i:2:p:295-325
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.022
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    Cited by:

    1. Evgenii Vladimirov, 2023. "iCOS: Option-Implied COS Method," Papers 2309.00943, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    2. Ana M. Monteiro & Antonio A. F. Santos, 2020. "Conditional risk-neutral density from option prices by local polynomial kernel smoothing with no-arbitrage constraints," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 41-61, April.
    3. Ana M. Monteiro & António A. F. Santos, 2022. "Option prices for risk‐neutral density estimation using nonparametric methods through big data and large‐scale problems," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 152-171, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option pricing; Kernel regression; High-frequency data; Random sampling times;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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