Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

State Price Densities implied from weather derivatives

Contents:

Author Info

  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle
  • Brenda López-Cabrera
  • Huei-Wen Teng

Abstract

A State Price Density (SPD) is the density function of a risk neutral equivalent martingale measure for option pricing, and is indispensible for exotic option pricing and portfolio risk management. Many approaches have been proposed in the last two decades to calibrate a SPD using financial options from the bond and equity markets. Among these, non and semi parametric methods were preferred because they can avoid model mis-specification of the underlying and thus give insight into complex portfolio propelling. However, these methods usually require a large data set to achieve desired convergence properties. Despite recent innovations in finan- cial and insurance markets, many markets remain incomplete and there exists an illiquidity issue. One faces the problem in estimation by e.g. kernel techniques that there are not enough observations locally available. For this situation, we employ a Bayesian quadrature method because it allows us to incorporate prior assumptions on the model parameters and hence avoids problems with data sparsity. It is able to compute the SPD of both call and put options simultaneously, and is particularly robust when the market faces the illiquidity issue. By comparing our approach with other approaches, we show that the traditional way of estimating the SPD by differ- entiating an interpolation of option prices does not hold in practice. As illustration, we calibrate the SPD for weather derivatives, a classical example of incomplete mar- kets with financial contracts payoffs linked to non-tradable assets, namely, weather indices. Finally, we study the dynamics of the implied SPD's and related to weather data.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2013-026.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2013-026.

as in new window
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-026

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin
Phone: +49-30-2093-5708
Fax: +49-30-2093-5617
Email:
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Weather derivatives; temperature derivatives; HDD; CDD; SPD; mixture; quadrature; Bayesian; Option trading Strategies; illiquid;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Duarte, Jefferson, 2003. "Nonparametric option pricing under shape restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 9-47.
  2. Fred Benth & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2009. "Pricing of Asian temperature risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-046, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Giacomini, Raffaella & Gottschling, Andreas & Haefke, Christian & White, Halbert, 2008. "Mixtures of t-distributions for finance and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 175-192, May.
  4. Yatchew, Adonis & Hardle, Wolfgang, 2006. "Nonparametric state price density estimation using constrained least squares and the bootstrap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 579-599, August.
  5. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
  6. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "Returns of claims on the upside and the viability of U-shaped pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-154, July.
  7. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
  9. Fan, Jianqing & Mancini, Loriano, 2009. "Option Pricing With Model-Guided Nonparametric Methods," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1351-1372.
  10. Haitao Li & Feng Zhao, 2009. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Interest Rate Cap Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4335-4376, November.
  11. Ming Yuan, 2009. "State price density estimation via nonparametric mixtures," Papers 0910.1430, arXiv.org.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Brenda López Cabrera & Martin Odening & Matthias Ritter, 2013. "Pricing Rainfall Derivatives at the CME," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.