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Multivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causality

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  • Gelper, Sarah
  • Croux, Christophe

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  • Gelper, Sarah & Croux, Christophe, 2007. "Multivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causality," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3319-3329, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:51:y:2007:i:7:p:3319-3329
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
    2. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 115-139.
    3. Ralf Ostermark & Jaana Aaltonen, 1999. "Comparison of univariate and multivariate Granger causality in international asset pricing. Evidence from Finnish and Japanese financial economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 155-165.
    4. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
    5. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    6. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
    7. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1998. "Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(1), pages 1-26, January.
    8. Siani, Carole & de Peretti, Christian, 2007. "Analysing the performance of bootstrap neural tests for conditional heteroskedasticity in ARCH-M models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 2442-2460, February.
    9. Thomas A. Garrett & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2005. "Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Mar), pages 123-135.
    10. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "On the Predictive Content of Production Surveys : a Pan-European Study," Other publications TiSEM adab9f0e-7dfd-4dc4-bd92-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
    12. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
    13. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    14. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    15. Horowitz, Joel L. & Savin, N. E., 2000. "Empirically relevant critical values for hypothesis tests: A bootstrap approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 375-389, April.
    16. Lemmens, Aurelie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2005. "On the predictive content of production surveys: A pan-European study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 363-375.
    17. Prado, Raquel & Molina, Francisco & Huerta, Gabriel, 2006. "Multivariate time series modeling and classification via hierarchical VAR mixtures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 1445-1462, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joëts, Marc, 2014. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 392-399.
    2. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2011. "Testing for Sufficient Information in Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 8209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Todorov, Valentin & Filzmoser, Peter, 2010. "Robust statistic for the one-way MANOVA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-48, January.
    4. Goodhead, Robert & Kolb, Benedikt, 2018. "Monetary policy communication shocks and the macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 46/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Bertrand Candelon & Marc Joëts & Sessi Tokpavi, 2012. "Testing for crude oil markets globalization during extreme price movements," Post-Print hal-01411687, HAL.
    7. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2018. "Fundamentalness, Granger Causality and Aggregation," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 139, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    8. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2015. "Speculation in the Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 621-649, June.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:28 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-028 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
    12. Candelon, Bertrand & Joëts, Marc & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2013. "Testing for Granger causality in distribution tails: An application to oil markets integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 276-285.
    13. Qiao, Zhuo & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2009. "Linear and nonlinear causality between changes in consumption and consumer attitudes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 161-164, March.
    14. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    15. Marc Joëts, 2012. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Working Papers hal-04141047, HAL.
    16. Emrah İ. Çevik & Turhan Korkmaz & Erdal Atukeren, 2012. "Business confidence and stock returns in the USA: a time-varying Markov regime-switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 299-312, February.

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