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Can Panel Data Really Improve the Predictability of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model? Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Westerlund, Joakim
Basher, Syed A.
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A common explanation for the inability of the monetary model to beat the random walk in forecasting future exchange rates is that conventional time series tests may have low power, and that panel data should generate more powerful tests. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of this power argument to the use of panel data in the forecasting context. In particular, by using simulations it is shown that although pooling of the individual prediction tests can lead to substantial power gains, pooling only the parameters of the forecasting equation, as has been suggested in the previous literature, does not seem to generate more powerful tests. The simulation results are illustrated through an empirical application.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
1229.
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Date of creation: 20 Dec 2006Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1229Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219 Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900 Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Monetary Exchange Rate Model Forecasting Panel Data Pooling Bootstrap. Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008.
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