Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Modeling Financial Return Dynamics by Decomposition

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stanislav Anatolyev

    ()
    (New Economic School)

  • Nikolay Gospodinov

    ()
    (Concordia University)

Abstract

While the predictability of excess stock returns is statistically small, their sign and volatility exhibit a substantially larger degree of dependence over time. We capitalize on this observation and consider prediction of excess stock returns by decomposing the equity premium into a product of sign and absolute value components and carefully modeling the marginal predictive densities of the two parts. Then we construct the joint density of a positively valued (absolute returns) random variable and a discrete binary (sign) random variable by copula methods and discuss computation of the conditional mean predictor. Our empirical analysis of US stock return data shows among other interesting ndings that despite the large unconditional correlation between the two multiplicative components they are conditionally very weakly dependent.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP95Anatolyev.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0095.

as in new window
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0095

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 117418 Russia, Moscow, Nakhimovsky pr., 47, office 720
Phone: +7 (495) 105 50 02
Fax: +7 (495) 105 50 03
Email:
Web page: http://www.cefir.ru
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Stock returns predictability; Directional forecasting; Absolute returns; Joint predictive distribution; Copulas.;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2003. "Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W18, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X.Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
  6. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  7. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1994. "Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 672-700, August.
  8. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano & Anthony S. Tay & Yiu Kuen Tse, 2006. "Direction-of-Change Forecasts Based on Conditional Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis Dynamics : International Evidence," Finance Working Papers 22075, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  9. Qi, Min, 1999. "Nonlinear Predictability of Stock Returns Using Financial and Economic Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 419-29, October.
  10. Tiemen Woutersen & Robert M. de Jong, 2004. "Dynamic time series binary choice," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 365, Econometric Society.
  11. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2006. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 681-714, 05.
  12. Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2004. "A Quantilogram Approach to Evaluating Directional Predictability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1454, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gerko, Alexander, 2005. "A Trading Approach to Testing for Predictability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 455-461, October.
  14. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  16. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
  17. Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
  18. Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
  19. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
  20. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  21. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
  22. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation ," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  23. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," NBER Working Papers 11468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Gencay, Ramazan, 1998. "Optimization of technical trading strategies and the profitability in security markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 249-254, May.
  26. Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  27. Christopher Polk & Samuel Thompson & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "New Forecasts of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 10406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  29. A. Colin Cameron & Tong Li & Pravin K. Trivedi & David M. Zimmer, 2004. "Modelling the differences in counted outcomes using bivariate copula models with application to mismeasured counts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 566-584, December.
  30. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 1999. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm124, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2009.
  31. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  32. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 2005. "Forecasting Financial Volatilities with Extreme Values: The Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 561-82, June.
  33. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  34. Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov & Shu Yan, 2004. "On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 937-966, October.
  35. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:672-700 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Wang, Tao, 2010. "'Optimal' probabilistic and directional predictions of financial returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 102-119, January.
  2. Stanislav Anatolyev & Natalia Kryzhanovskaya, 2009. "Directional Prediction of Returns under Asymmetric Loss: Direct and Indirect Approaches," Working Papers w0136, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0095. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julia Babich).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.