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Dynamics of trade-by-trade price movements: decomposition and models

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Author Info
Tina Hviid Rydberg () (BNP Paribas, London)
Neil Shephard () (Nuffield College, Oxford)

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Abstract

In this paper we introduce a decomposition of the joint distribution of price changes of assets recorded trade--by--trade. Our decomposition means that we can model the dynamics of price changes using quite simple and interpretable models which are easily extended in a great number of directions, including using durations and volume as explanatory variables. Thus we provide an econometric basis for empirical work on market microstructure using time series of transactions data. We use maximum likelihood estimation and testing methods to assess the fit of the model to a year of IBM stock price data taken from the New York Stock Exchange.

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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2002-W1.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0201

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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Keywords: Activity autologistic conditional independence decomposition directions durations forecasting GLARMA logarithmic distribution prediction decomposition size transactions data.

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Melvin, Michael, 1994. "Bid--ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market : An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 355-372, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Eric Ghysels & Joanna Jasiak, 1998. "GARCH for Irregularly Spaced Financial Data: The ACD-GARCH Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 2(4), pages 133-149. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Joel Hasbrouck, 1999. "The Dynamics of Discrete Bid and Ask Quotes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2109-2142, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Henrik Amilon, 2002. "A Score Test for Discreteness in GARCH Models," Research Paper Series 76, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  2. Winfried Pohlmeier & Roman Liesenfeld, 2003. "A Dynamic Integer Count Data Model for Financial Transaction Prices," CoFE Discussion Paper 03-03, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Xin Huang, 2007. "A Reduced Form Framework for Modeling Volatility of Speculative Prices based on Realized Variation Measures," CREATES Research Papers 2007-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jonathan Wright, 2002. "Log-Periodogram Estimation Of Long Memory Volatility Dependencies With Conditionally Heavy Tailed Returns," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 397-417. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tina Hviid Rydberg & Neil Shephard, 2000. "BIN Models for Trade-by-Trade Data. Modelling the Number of Trades in a Fixed Interval of Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0740, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roman Liesenfeld & Ingmar Nolte & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2006. "Modelling financial transaction price movements: a dynamic integer count data model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 795-825, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Anthony Tay & Christopher Ting & Yiu Kuen Tse & Mitch Warachka, 2004. "Transaction-Data Analysis of Marked Durations and Their Implications for Market Microstructure," Working Papers 09-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Enrico Scalas, 2005. "Five Years of Continuous-time Random Walks in Econophysics," Finance 0501005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Drescher, Daniel, 2005. "Alternative distributions for observation driven count series models," Economics working papers 2005,11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889. [Downloadable!]
  11. Charles S. Bos, 2008. "Model-based Estimation of High Frequency Jump Diffusions with Microstructure Noise and Stochastic Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-011/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jung, Robert & Kukuk, Martin & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2005. "Time Series of Count Data : Modelling and Estimation," Economics working papers 2005,08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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