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Forecasting Financial Volatilities with Extreme Values: The Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) Model

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Author Info
Chou, Ray Yeutien

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Abstract

We propose a dynamic model for the high/low range of asset prices within fixed time intervals: the Conditional Autoregressive Range Model (henceforth CARR). The evolution of the conditional range is specified in a fashion similar to the conditional variance models as in GARCH and is very similar to the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model of Engle and Russell (1998). Extreme value theories imply that the range is an efficient estimator of the local volatility, e.g., Parkinson (1980). Hence, CARR can be viewed as a model of volatility. Out-of-sample volatility forecasts using the S&P500 index data show that the CARR model does provide sharper volatility estimates compared with a standard GARCH model.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 561-82
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:3:p:561-82

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Yin-wong Cheung, 2006. "An Empirical Model of Daily Highs and Lows," Working Papers 072006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Fabrizio Cipollini & Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2006. "Vector Multiplicative Error Models: Representation and Inference," NBER Working Papers 12690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yongmiao Hong & Yoon-Jin Lee, 2007. "Detecting Misspecifications in Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," Caepr Working Papers 2007-019, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  5. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Dynamic modeling under linear-exponential loss," Working Papers w0092, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Celso Brunetti & Roberto S. Mariano & Chiara Scotti & Augustine H.H. Tan, 2007. "Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in southeast Asia," International Finance Discussion Papers 889, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Zdravetz Lazarov, 2005. "Assesing the Economic Significance of the Intra-daily Volatility Seasonalities," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 203, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  8. Markku Lanne, 2006. "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/3, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2008. "Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2008_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
  10. Schmidt, Rafael & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Modelling dynamic portfolio risk using risk drivers of elliptical processes," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  11. Yan-Leung Cheung & Yin-Wong Cheung & Alan T.K. Wan, 2008. "A High-Low Model of Daily Stock Price Ranges," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Celso Brunetti & Roberto S. Mariano & Chiara Scotti & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2003. "Markov Switching Garch Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  13. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2007. "Modeling Financial Return Dynamics by Decomposition," Working Papers w0095, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
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