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Nonlinear Predictability of Stock Returns Using Financial and Economic Variables

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Author Info
Qi, Min
Abstract

Inspired by the linear predictability and nonlinearity found in the finance literature, this article examines the nonlinear predictability of the excess returns. The relationship between the excess returns and the predicting variables is recursively modeled by a neural-network model, which is capable of performing flexible nonlinear functional approximation. The nonlinear neural-network model is found to have better in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasts compared to its linear counterpart. Moreover, the switching portfolio based on the recursive neural-network forecasts generates higher profits with lower risks than both the buy-and-hold market portfolio and the switching portfolio based on linear recursive forecasts.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 17 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 419-29
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:17:y:1999:i:4:p:419-29

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  1. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  2. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Christian A. Johnson, 2005. "Modelos de alerta temprana para pronosticar crisis bancarias: desde la extracción de señales a las redes neuronales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 20(1), pages 95-121, June. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Valuation ratios and long-horizon stock price predictability," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 327-344. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christian A. Johnson & Rodrigo Vergara, 2005. "The implementation of monetary policy in an emerging economy: the case of Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 20(1), pages 45-62, June. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2007. "Modeling Financial Return Dynamics by Decomposition," Working Papers w0095, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
  7. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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