Revisiting the Empirical Inconsistency of the Permanent Income Hypothesis: Evidence from Rural China
AbstractChow (1985) reports strong evidence in favor of the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) using observations from 1953 to 1982 in China. We revisit this issue with rural area household data in China during the post economic reform regime (1978-2009) as well as the postwar US data for comparison. Our in-sample analysis provides strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises also reveal that consumption changes are highly predictable. Our vector autoregressive (VAR) model analysis also shows significantly positive responses of consumption to income shocks, and non-negligible proportions of variations in consumption are explained by innovations in income.
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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Permanent Income Hypothesis; Consumption; Generalized Method of Moments; Diebold-Mariano-West Statistic; Vector Autoregressive;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2013-03-23 (Development)
- NEP-FOR-2013-03-23 (Forecasting)
- NEP-TRA-2013-03-23 (Transition Economics)
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