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A Direct test of the permanent income hypothesis: the brazilian case

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  • Fabio Augusto Reis Gomes

    (Fucape Business School)

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    Abstract

    This paper aims to analyze whether the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) can explain the evolution of consumption in Brazil using a direct test based on consumption revisions induced by income innovations. Under PIH, consumption should react to income changes inasmuch as current income has information about the permanent income. To measure this connection, an ARIMA(p,1,q) model was estimated for current income and, as a result, it was possible to check if revisions in consumption and permanent income are similar. At the end, the PIH was rejected.

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    File URL: http://www.bbronline.com.br/public/edicoes/9_4/artigos/hdtzdyhbaa16112012183222.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Fucape Business School in its journal Brazilian Business Review.

    Volume (Year): 9 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 87-102

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    Handle: RePEc:bbz:fcpbbr:v:9:y:2012:i:4:p:87-102

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    Postal: Fucape Business School Brazilian Business Review Av. Fernando Ferrari, 1358, Boa Vista CEP 29075-505 Vitória-ES
    Phone: +55 27 4009-4423
    Fax: +55 27 4009-4422
    Web page: http://www.bbronline.com.br/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Permanent income hypothesis; income innovations; consumption revisions.;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Dejuan, Joseph P & Seater, John J & Wirjanto, Tony S, 2004. "A Direct Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis with an Application to the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1091-1103, December.
    2. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & Issler, João Victor & Salvato, Márcio Antônio, 2004. "Principais características do consumo de duráveis no Brasil testes de separabilidade entre duráveis e não-duráveis," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 549, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    3. Vaidyanathan, Geetha, 1993. "Consumption, liquidity constraints and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-610.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Quah, D., 1989. "Permanent And Transitory Movements In Labor Income: An Explanation For "Excess Smoothness" In Consumption," Working papers 535, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    6. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "The Insensitivity of Consumption to News About Income," NBER Working Papers 2252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. John W. Dawson & Joseph P. Dejuan & John J. Seater & E. Frank Stephenson, 2001. "Economic information versus quality variation in cross-country data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(4), pages 988-1009, November.
    8. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2003. "Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1151-1173, December.
    10. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Brady, Ryan R., 2008. "Structural breaks and consumer credit: Is consumption smoothing finally a reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1246-1268, September.
    12. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
    13. Marjorie Flavin, 1985. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-36, February.
    14. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    15. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
    16. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    17. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. George-Marios Angeletos, 2001. "The Hyberbolic Consumption Model: Calibration, Simulation, and Empirical Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 47-68, Summer.
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