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Measuring Deviations from the Permanent Income Hypothesis

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  • Kim, Chulsoo

Abstract

This paper examines the permanent income hypothesis by measuring the extent to which consumption deviates from it. Measuring deviations enables us to interpret empirical results in terms of economic significance as opposed to statistical significance. Namely, the author examines whether the permanent income hypothesis is a reasonable model rather than whether it is exactly correctly specified. This paper finds that postwar U.S. consumption deviates from the permanent income hypothesis by less than 4 percent, which indicates a reasonably good fit when viewed in a representative agent framework with so many restrictive assumptions. Copyright 1996 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Chulsoo, 1996. "Measuring Deviations from the Permanent Income Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(1), pages 205-225, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:37:y:1996:i:1:p:205-25
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    Cited by:

    1. Liping Gao & Hyeongwoo Kim & Yaoqi Zhang, 2013. "Revisiting the Empirical Inconsistency of the Permanent Income Hypothesis: Evidence from Rural China," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    2. Angelos A. Antzoulatos, 1997. "Non-linear consumption dynamics," Research Paper 9726, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Mark A. Hooker, 1997. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Measuring noise in the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, September.
    5. Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Measures of Fit for Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 301-355, July.
    6. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "Türkiye Ekonomisinde Sürekli Gelir Hipotezine İlişkin Kanıtlar: Zaman Serileri Analizi (2004-2012) [Evidence for Turkey's Economy Permanent Income Hypothesis: Time Series Analysis (2004-2012)]," MPRA Paper 55696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chulsoo Kim, 2004. "Is There Irrational Exuberance?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 65-80, December.
    8. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.

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