IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i14p4976-d857870.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic Forecasting of German Electricity Imbalance Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Michał Narajewski

    (House of Energy Markets and Finance, University of Duisburg-Essen, 45141 Essen, Germany)

Abstract

The imbalance market is very volatile and often exhibits extreme price spikes. This makes it very hard to model; however, if predicted correctly, one could make significant gains by participating on the right side of the market. In this manuscript, we conduct a very short-term probabilistic forecasting of imbalance prices, contributing to the scarce literature in this novel subject. The forecasting is performed 30 min before the delivery, so that the trader might still choose the trading place. The distribution of the imbalance prices is modelled and forecasted using methods well-known in the electricity price forecasting literature: lasso with bootstrap, gamlss, and probabilistic neural networks. The methods are compared with a naive benchmark in a meaningful rolling window study. The results provide evidence of the efficiency between the intraday and balancing markets as the sophisticated methods do not substantially overperform the intraday continuous price index. On the other hand, they significantly improve the empirical coverage. Therefore, the traders should avoid participating in the balancing market, which is inline with the objective and current regulations of the market. The analysis was conducted on the German market; however, it could be easily applied to any other market of a similar structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Narajewski, 2022. "Probabilistic Forecasting of German Electricity Imbalance Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:14:p:4976-:d:857870
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/14/4976/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/14/4976/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1533-1547.
    2. Marcel Kremer & Rüdiger Kiesel & Florentina Paraschiv, 2020. "Intraday Electricity Pricing of Night Contracts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Ilkay Oksuz & Umut Ugurlu, 2019. "Neural Network Based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Narajewski, Michał & Weron, Rafał & Ziel, Florian, 2023. "Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Jesus Lago & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bart De Schutter & Rafal Weron, 2021. "Erratum to 'Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark' [Appl. Energy 293 (2021) 116983]," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/12, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    6. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    7. Christopher Kath, 2019. "Modeling Intraday Markets under the New Advances of the Cross-Border Intraday Project (XBID): Evidence from the German Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-35, November.
    8. Kumbartzky, Nadine & Schacht, Matthias & Schulz, Katrin & Werners, Brigitte, 2017. "Optimal operation of a CHP plant participating in the German electricity balancing and day-ahead spot market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(1), pages 390-404.
    9. Alexandre Lucas & Konstantinos Pegios & Evangelos Kotsakis & Dan Clarke, 2020. "Price Forecasting for the Balancing Energy Market Using Machine-Learning Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    11. Derek W. Bunn & Angelica Gianfreda & Stefan Kermer, 2018. "A Trading-Based Evaluation of Density Forecasts in a Real-Time Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
    12. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    13. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Econometric modelling and forecasting of intraday electricity prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    14. Tim Janke & Florian Steinke, 2019. "Forecasting the Price Distribution of Continuous Intraday Electricity Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-14, November.
    15. Kramer, Anke & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2021. "Exogenous factors for order arrivals on the intraday electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    16. Ziel, Florian & Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2016. "Forecasting wind power – Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 285-297.
    17. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    18. Florian Ziel, 2015. "Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices using Lasso: On Capturing the Autoregressive Intraday Structure," Papers 1509.01966, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    19. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2021. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Papers 2104.14204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    20. Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2019. "Averaging Predictive Distributions Across Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-12, July.
    21. Derek W. Bunn and Stefan O.E. Kermer, 2021. "Statistical Arbitrage and Information Flow in an Electricity Balancing Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    22. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    23. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    24. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    25. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Selection of Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    26. Poplavskaya, Ksenia & Lago, Jesus & de Vries, Laurens, 2020. "Effect of market design on strategic bidding behavior: Model-based analysis of European electricity balancing markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    27. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
    28. Jethro Browell, 2018. "Risk Constrained Trading Strategies for Stochastic Generation with a Single-Price Balancing Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, May.
    29. van der Veen, Reinier A.C. & Hakvoort, Rudi A., 2016. "The electricity balancing market: Exploring the design challenge," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(PB), pages 186-194.
    30. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2020. "Assessing the impact of renewable energy sources on the electricity price level and variability – A quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    31. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity spot prices using Factor Quantile Regression Averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 957-965.
    32. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2022. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: Trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    33. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 791-803, September.
    34. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2017. "Variance stabilizing transformations for electricity spot price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    35. Angelica Gianfreda & Derek Bunn, 2018. "A Stochastic Latent Moment Model for Electricity Price Formation," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS46, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    36. van der Veen, Reinier A.C. & Abbasy, Alireza & Hakvoort, Rudi A., 2012. "Agent-based analysis of the impact of the imbalance pricing mechanism on market behavior in electricity balancing markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 874-881.
    37. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Ensemble forecasting for intraday electricity prices: Simulating trajectories," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    38. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    39. Jethro Browell & Ciaran Gilbert, 2022. "Predicting Electricity Imbalance Prices and Volumes: Capabilities and Opportunities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-7, May.
    40. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2019. "Estimation and simulation of the transaction arrival process in intraday electricity markets," Papers 1901.09729, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    41. Koch, Christopher & Hirth, Lion, 2019. "Short-term electricity trading for system balancing: An empirical analysis of the role of intraday trading in balancing Germany's electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    42. Michał Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2019. "Estimation and Simulation of the Transaction Arrival Process in Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    43. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    44. Ocker, Fabian & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin, 2017. "The “German Paradox” in the balancing power markets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 892-898.
    45. R. A. Rigby & D. M. Stasinopoulos, 2005. "Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(3), pages 507-554, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Electricity price forecasting with Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: Quantifying economic benefits of probabilistic forecasts," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    2. Yuriy Bilan & Serhiy Kozmenko & Alex Plastun, 2022. "Price Forecasting in Energy Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-6, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Micha{l} Narajewski, 2022. "Probabilistic forecasting of German electricity imbalance prices," Papers 2205.11439, arXiv.org.
    2. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Narajewski, Michał & Weron, Rafał & Ziel, Florian, 2023. "Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Ensemble forecasting for intraday electricity prices: Simulating trajectories," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    4. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    5. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    6. Serafin, Tomasz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2022. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    9. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2022. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: Trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2021. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Papers 2104.14204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    11. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
    12. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    13. Janczura, Joanna & Wójcik, Edyta, 2022. "Dynamic short-term risk management strategies for the choice of electricity market based on probabilistic forecasts of profit and risk measures. The German and the Polish market case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nitka, Weronika & Weron, Tomasz, 2021. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation for day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    15. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    16. Li, Wei & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2022. "Modelling the evolution of wind and solar power infeed forecasts," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    17. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    18. Christopher Kath & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Serafin & Tomasz Weron & Przemysław Zaleski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Balancing Generation from Renewable Energy Sources: Profitability of an Energy Trader," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    19. Jozef Barunik & Lubos Hanus, 2023. "Learning Probability Distributions of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2310.02867, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    20. Cramer, Eike & Witthaut, Dirk & Mitsos, Alexander & Dahmen, Manuel, 2023. "Multivariate probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices using normalizing flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:14:p:4976-:d:857870. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.