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Enhancing load, wind and solar generation for day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices

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  • Maciejowska, Katarzyna
  • Nitka, Weronika
  • Weron, Tomasz

Abstract

In recent years, a rapid development of renewable energy sources (RES) has been observed across the world. Intermittent energy sources, which depend strongly on weather conditions, induce additional uncertainty to the system and impact the level and variability of electricity prices. Predictions of RES, together with the level of demand, have been recognized as one of the most important determinants of future electricity prices. In this research, it is shown that forecasts of these fundamental variables, which are published by Transmission System Operators (TSO), are biased and could be improved with simple regression models. Enhanced predictions are next used for forecasting of spot and intraday prices in Germany. The results indicate that improving the forecasts of fundamentals leads to more accurate predictions of both, the spot and the intraday prices. Finally, it is demonstrated that utilization of enhanced forecasts is helpful in a day-ahead choice of a market (spot or intraday), and results in a substantial increase of revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nitka, Weronika & Weron, Tomasz, 2021. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation for day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:99:y:2021:i:c:s014098832100178x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Ping & Nie, Ying & Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia, 2023. "Multivariable short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial intelligence and multi-input multi-output scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Oliver Grothe & Fabian Kachele & Fabian Kruger, 2022. "From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Papers 2204.10154, arXiv.org.
    3. Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2022. "A portfolio management of a small RES utility with a Structural Vector Autoregressive model of German electricity markets," Papers 2205.00975, arXiv.org.
    4. Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
    5. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Electricity price forecasting with Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: Quantifying economic benefits of probabilistic forecasts," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    6. Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
    7. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    8. Weronika Nitka & Rafał Weron, 2023. "Combining predictive distributions of electricity prices. Does minimizing the CRPS lead to optimal decisions in day-ahead bidding?," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 33(3), pages 105-118.
    9. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Narajewski, Michał & Weron, Rafał & Ziel, Florian, 2023. "Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Grothe, Oliver & Kächele, Fabian & Krüger, Fabian, 2023. "From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    11. Serafin, Tomasz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2022. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Rainer Baule & Michael Naumann, 2021. "Volatility and Dispersion of Hourly Electricity Contracts on the German Continuous Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-24, November.
    13. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    14. Janczura, Joanna & Wójcik, Edyta, 2022. "Dynamic short-term risk management strategies for the choice of electricity market based on probabilistic forecasts of profit and risk measures. The German and the Polish market case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Konstantinos Plakas & Ioannis Karampinis & Panayiotis Alefragis & Alexios Birbas & Michael Birbas & Alex Papalexopoulos, 2023. "A Predictive Fuzzy Logic Model for Forecasting Electricity Day-Ahead Market Prices for Scheduling Industrial Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-21, May.
    16. Miller, J. Isaac & Nam, Kyungsik, 2022. "Modeling peak electricity demand: A semiparametric approach using weather-driven cross-temperature response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Thomas Mobius & Mira Watermeyer & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "Enhancing Energy System Models Using Better Load Forecasts," Papers 2302.11017, arXiv.org.
    18. Jing Wan & Jiehui Huang & Zhiyuan Liao & Chunquan Li & Peter X. Liu, 2022. "A Multi-View Ensemble Width-Depth Neural Network for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, May.
    19. Silvia Golia & Luigi Grossi & Matteo Pelagatti, 2022. "Machine Learning Models and Intra-Daily Market Information for the Prediction of Italian Electricity Prices," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    20. Rainer Baule & Michael Naumann, 2022. "Flexible Short-Term Electricity Certificates—An Analysis of Trading Strategies on the Continuous Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-28, August.

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