Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Retirement choices in Italy: what an option value model tells us

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michele Belloni

    ()
    (CeRP - Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin)

  • Rob Alessie

    ()
    (University of Groningen)

Abstract

Using Italian data this study estimates the option value model in order to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this is the first empirical study which estimates the conditional multiple-years (CMY) model put forward by Stock and Wise (1990). This implies that we have accounted for dynamic self-selection bias. For the subsample of females the CMY model yields plausible estimates of the preference parameters such as the marginal utility of leisure. This last parameter is typically underestimated if one does not take into account the self-selection problem. From our results it becomes clear that dynamic self-selection results in a considerable downward-bias in the estimate of the marginal utility of leisure. We also performed a simulation study to gauge the effects of a dramatic pension reform. It turns out that the underestimation of the marginal utility of leisure translates into a sizable overprediction of the impact of the reform. For males we also obtain plausible estimates. The results for males should be interpreted with caution because we are not able to fully correct for dynamic self-selection bias.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://cerp.unito.it/images/stories/pubblicazioni/wp_92.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 500 Can't connect to cerp.unito.it:80 (Bad hostname). If this is indeed the case, please notify (Silvia Maero)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy) in its series CeRP Working Papers with number 92.

as in new window
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:92

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Real Collegio 30, 10024 Moncalieri (TO)
Phone: 39 011 6705040
Fax: +39 011 6705042
Email:
Web page: http://cerp.unito.it
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: retirement; option value model; dynamic self-selection;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006. "Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2187-2212, December.
  2. Rob Euwals & Daniel Vuuren & Ronald Wolthoff, 2010. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence From a Policy Reform," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 209-236, September.
  3. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  4. Agar Brugiavini, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Italy," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 181-237 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Brugiavini, Agar & Padula, Mario, 2001. "Too much for retirement? Saving in Italy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 39-60, March.
  6. Colombino, Ugo & Hernæs, Erik & Jia, Zhiyang & Strom, Steinar, 2003. "Retirement in Italy and Norway," Memorandum 10/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  7. Angus S. Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in the Economics of Aging, pages 331-362 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel L. McFadden & Paul Ruud, 1993. "Simulation of Multivariate Normal Rectangle Probabilities and their Derivatives: Theoretical and Computational Results," Working Papers _024, Yale University.
  9. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2005. "Social Security and the Retirement and Savings Behavior of Low Income Households," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2003. "Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing," IZA Discussion Papers 941, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Belloni, Michele & Alessie, Rob, 2009. "The importance of financial incentives on retirement choices: New evidence for Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 578-588, October.
  12. Anne Møller Danø & Mette Ejrnæs & Leif Husted, 2004. "Do Single Women Value Early Retirement more than Single Men?," CAM Working Papers 2004-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
  13. Agar Brugiavini & Vincenzo Galasso, 2003. "The Social Security Reform Process in Italy: Where do We Stand?," Working Papers wp052, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  14. Arjan Heyma, 2004. "A structural dynamic analysis of retirement behaviour in the Netherlands," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 739-759.
  15. Richard V. Burkhauser & J. S. Butler & Gulcin Gumus, 2004. "Dynamic programming model estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance application timing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 671-685.
  16. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990. "Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity Versus Predictive Validity," NBER Working Papers 3558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2003. "Social Security Wealth and Retirement Decisions in Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 79-114, 08.
  18. Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2004. "Do changes in pension incentives affect retirement? A longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1307-1333, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Peri, Giovanni & Romiti, Agnese & Rossi, Mariacristina, 2013. "Immigrants, Household Production and Women's Retirement," IZA Discussion Papers 7549, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2011. "Retirement Choice Simulation in Household Settings with Heterogeneous Pension Plans," IZA Discussion Papers 5866, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Silvia Maero) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Silvia Maero to update the entry or send us the correct address.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.