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Output Gap Estimation for Inflation Forecasting: The Case of the Philippines

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  • Bagsic, Cristeta
  • Paul, McNelis

Abstract

This paper examines alternative estimation models for obtaining output gap measures for the Philippines. These measures are combined with the rates of growth of broad money, nominal wages and oil prices for forecasting inflation. We find that models which combine these leading indicators in a nonlinear way out-perform other linear combinations of these variables for out-of-sample forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Bagsic, Cristeta & Paul, McNelis, 2007. "Output Gap Estimation for Inflation Forecasting: The Case of the Philippines," MPRA Paper 86789, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86789
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/86789/1/WPS200701.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
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    5. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.
    6. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    7. Iris Claus, 2003. "Estimating potential output for New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 751-760.
    8. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
    9. repec:pri:cepsud:83svensson is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    11. Andrew Rennison, 2003. "Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach," Staff Working Papers 03-8, Bank of Canada.
    12. Guy Debelle, 1999. "Inflation Targeting and Output Stabilisation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    14. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
    15. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.
    16. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2012. "Alternatif Cikti Acigi Gostergeleri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1222, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Christopher CRUZ & Claire MAPA, 2013. "An Early Warning System For Inflation In The Philippines Using Markov-Switching And Logistic Regression Models," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 136-150.
    3. Michal Andrle, 2013. "What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables," IMF Working Papers 2013/105, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Thitipat Chansriniyom & Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Valeriu Nalban, 2020. "The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model," IMF Working Papers 2020/201, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; output gaps; principal components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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