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Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives

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  • Anders B. Trolle
  • Eduardo S. Schwartz
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    Abstract

    We conduct a comprehensive analysis of unspanned stochastic volatility in commodity markets in general and the crude-oil market in particular. We present model-free results that strongly suggest the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility in the crude-oil market. We then develop a tractable model for pricing commodity derivatives in the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility. The model features correlations between innovations to futures prices and volatility, quasi-analytical prices of options on futures and futures curve dynamics in terms of a low-dimensional affine state vector. The model performs well when estimated on an extensive panel data set of crude-oil futures and options.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12744.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12744.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2006
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    Publication status: published as Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12744

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