Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives
AbstractWe conduct a comprehensive analysis of unspanned stochastic volatility in commodity markets in general and the crude-oil market in particular. We present model-free results that strongly suggest the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility in the crude-oil market. We then develop a tractable model for pricing commodity derivatives in the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility. The model features correlations between innovations to futures prices and volatility, quasi-analytical prices of options on futures and futures curve dynamics in terms of a low-dimensional affine state vector. The model performs well when estimated on an extensive panel data set of crude-oil futures and options.
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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-12-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2006-12-22 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ETS-2006-12-22 (Econometric Time Series)
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