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Computing the market price of volatility risk in the energy commodity markets

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Author Info

  • Doran, James S.
  • Ronn, Ehud I.

Abstract

In this paper, we demonstrate the need for a negative market price of volatility risk to recover the difference between Black-Scholes [Black, F., Scholes, M., 1973. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy 81, 637-654]/Black [Black, F., 1976. Studies of stock price volatility changes. In: Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, pp. 177-181] implied volatility and realized-term volatility. Initially, using quasi-Monte Carlo simulation, we demonstrate numerically that a negative market price of volatility risk is the key risk premium in explaining the disparity between risk-neutral and statistical volatility in both equity and commodity-energy markets. This is robust to multiple specifications that also incorporate jumps. Next, using futures and options data from natural gas, heating oil and crude oil contracts over a 10Â year period, we estimate the volatility risk premium and demonstrate that the premium is negative and significant for all three commodities. Additionally, there appear distinct seasonality patterns for natural gas and heating oil, where winter/withdrawal months have higher volatility risk premiums. Computing such a negative market price of volatility risk highlights the importance of volatility risk in understanding priced volatility in these financial markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 2541-2552

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:12:p:2541-2552

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Related research

Keywords: Volatility risk premium Energy futures and options markets;

References

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  1. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, 06.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
  2. Cheong, Chin Wen, 2009. "Modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using ARCH-type models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2346-2355, June.
  3. Sofía B. Ramos & Helena Veiga, 2009. "Risk factors in oil and gas industry returns: international evidence," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws096920, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  4. Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Thuy-Duong To, 2012. "Humps in the Volatility Structure of the Crude Oil Futures Market," Research Paper Series 308, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
  6. Sévi, Benoît & Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "A Fear Index to Predict Oil Futures Returns," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11714, Paris Dauphine University.
  7. Cameron, Ken & Schnusenberg, Oliver, 2009. "Oil prices, SUVs, and Iraq: An investigation of automobile manufacturer oil price sensitivity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 375-381, May.
  8. Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2010. "Commodity derivatives valuation with autoregressive and moving average components in the price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2742-2752, November.
  9. Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
  10. Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.

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