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Theory of Storage and the Pricing of Commodity Claims

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  • Martin J. Nielsen

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  • Eduardo S. Schwartz
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    Abstract

    We extend the literature on commodity pricing by incorporating a link between the spread of forward prices and spot price volatility suggested by the theory of storage. Our model has closed form solutions that are generalizations of the two-factor model of Gibson--Schwartz (1990). We estimate the model on daily copper spot and forward prices using the Kalman filter methodology. Our findings confirm the link between the forward spread and volatility, but also show that the Gibson--Schwartz (1990) model prices forward contracts almost as well. In the pricing of option contracts, however, there are significant differences between the models.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of Derivatives Research.

    Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 5-24

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:5-24

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102989

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    Cited by:
    1. Luca Pieroni & Matteo Ricciarelli, 2005. "Modelling Dynamic Storage Function in Commodity Markets:Theory and Evidence," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 11/2005, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
    2. George M. Korniotis, 2009. "Does speculation affect spot price levels? the case of metals with and without futures markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Liu, Peng & Tang, Ke, 2011. "The stochastic behavior of commodity prices with heteroskedasticity in the convenience yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 211-224, March.
    4. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
    5. Lin, Chuanyi & Roberts, Matthew C., 2006. "Storability on Modeling Commodity Futures Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21484, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Suenaga, Hiroaki, 2013. "Measuring bias in a term-structure model of commodity prices through the comparison of simultaneous and sequential estimation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 53-66.
    7. Ochieng', Otieno Geoffrey, 2010. "Effect of Value Addition on Price: A Hedonic Analysis of Peanut in Retail Supermarkets in Nairobi, Kenya," Research Theses 134495, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.

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