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Joint Modeling of Call and Put Implied Volatility

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Author Info
Ahoniemi, Katja
Lanne, Markku

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Abstract

This paper exploits the fact that implied volatilities calculated from identical call and put options have often been empirically found to differ, although they should be equal in theory. We propose a new bivariate mixture multiplicative error model and show that it is a good fit to Nikkei 225 index call and put option implied volatility (IV). A good model fit requires two mixture components in the model, allowing for different mean equations and error distributions for calmer and more volatile days. Forecast evaluation indicates that in addition to jointly modeling the time series of call and put IV, cross effects should be added to the model: putside implied volatility helps forecast callside IV, and vice versa. Impulse response functions show that the IV derived from put options recovers faster from shocks, and the effect of shocks lasts for up to six weeks.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6318.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6318

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Related research
Keywords: Implied Volatility Option Markets Multiplicative Error Models Forecasting

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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