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Can we measure inflation expectations using Twitter?

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  • Angelico, Cristina
  • Marcucci, Juri
  • Miccoli, Marcello
  • Quarta, Filippo

Abstract

Drawing on Italian tweets, we employ textual data and machine learning techniques to build new real-time measures of consumers’ inflation expectations. First, we select keywords to identify tweets related to prices and expectations thereof. Second, we build a set of daily measures of inflation expectations around the selected tweets, combining the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) with a dictionary-based approach, using manually labeled bi-grams and tri-grams. Finally, we show that Twitter-based indicators are highly correlated with both monthly survey-based and daily market-based inflation expectations. Our new indicators anticipate consumers’ expectations, proving to be a good real-time proxy, and provide additional information beyond market-based expectations, professional forecasts, and realized inflation. The results suggest that Twitter can be a new timely source for eliciting beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelico, Cristina & Marcucci, Juri & Miccoli, Marcello & Quarta, Filippo, 2022. "Can we measure inflation expectations using Twitter?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 259-277.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:228:y:2022:i:2:p:259-277
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.008
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. New indicators of perceived inflation in France based on media data
      by raphael.moncomble in Eco Notepad on 2022-12-26 14:31:41

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    Cited by:

    1. Helena Chuliá & Sabuhi Khalili & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Monitoring time-varying systemic risk in sovereign debt and currency markets with generative AI," IREA Working Papers 202402, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    2. Aprigliano, Valentina & Emiliozzi, Simone & Guaitoli, Gabriele & Luciani, Andrea & Marcucci, Juri & Monteforte, Libero, 2023. "The power of text-based indicators in forecasting Italian economic activity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 791-808.
    3. Cafferata, Alessia & Cerruti, Gianluca & Mazzone, Giulio, 2022. "Taxation, health system endowment and quality of institutions: a "social" perception across Europe," MPRA Paper 112118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Xinyu Li & Zihan Tang, 2022. "Sentiment Analysis on Inflation after Covid-19," Papers 2209.14737, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    5. De Bandt Olivier & Bricongne Jean-Charles & Denes Julien & Dhenin Alexandre & De Gaye Annabelle & Robert Pierre-Antoine, 2023. "Using the Press to Construct a New Indicator of Inflation Perceptions in France," Working papers 921, Banque de France.
    6. Valerio Astuti & Marta Crispino & Marco Langiulli & Juri Marcucci, 2022. "Textual analysis of a Twitter corpus during the COVID-19 pandemics," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 692, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Valentina Aprigliano & Guerino Ardizzi & Alessia Cassetta & Alessandro Cavallero & Simone Emiliozzi & Alessandro Gambini & Nazzareno Renzi & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Exploiting payments to track Italian economic activity: the experience at Banca d’Italia," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 609, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Travis Adams & Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Papers 2305.16164, arXiv.org.
    10. Tetiana Yukhymenko, 2021. "Role of the Media in the Inflation Expectation Formation Process," IHEID Working Papers 13-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Swapnil Virendra Chalwadi & Preeti Tushar Joshi & Nitin Mohanlal Sharma & Chaitanya Gite & Sangita Salve, 2023. "Gender Differences in Inflation Expectations: Recent Evidence from India," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, February.
    12. Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2022. "The demand and supply of information about inflation," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-27, CIRANO.
    13. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy, Twitter and financial markets: evidence from social media traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    14. Jouchi Nakajima & Hiroaki Yamagata & Tatsushi Okuda & Shinnosuke Katsuki & Takeshi Shinohara, 2021. "Extracting Firms' Short-Term Inflation Expectations from the Economy Watchers Survey Using Text Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    15. Vivian Chu & Tatjana Dahlhaus & Christopher Hajzler & Pierre-Yves Yanni, 2023. "Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2023-18, Bank of Canada.
    16. Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Travis Adams & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Mary Chen & Matthew DeHaven & Isabel Kitschelt & Seung Jung Lee & Martin J. Sicilian, 2023. "Identifying Financial Crises Using Machine Learning on Textual Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-28, March.
    18. Mary Chen & Matthew DeHaven & Isabel Kitschelt & Seung Jung Lee & Martin Sicilian, 2023. "Identifying Financial Crises Using Machine Learning on Textual Data," International Finance Discussion Papers 1374, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Xinyu Li & Zihan Tang, 2023. "Sentiment Analysis on Inflation after COVID-19," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 1023-1023, February.
    20. Marc-André Gosselin & Temel Taskin, 2023. "What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?," Discussion Papers 2023-13, Bank of Canada.
    21. J. Daniel Aromí & Martín Llada, 2024. "Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions? The case of inflation in Argentina," Working Papers 300, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    22. Lin Chen & Stephanie Houle, 2023. "Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages," Discussion Papers 2023-8, Bank of Canada.
    23. Petrova, Diana, 2022. "Assessment of inflation expectations based on internet data," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 25-38.
    24. Ajit Desai, 2023. "Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-16, Bank of Canada.
    25. Giulio Gariano & Gianluca Viggiano, 2022. "Press news and social media in credit risk assessment: the experience of Banca d’Italia’s In-house Credit Assessment System," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 24, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Twitter; Text mining; Big data; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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