Forecasting the yield curve for the Euro region
AbstractThis paper compares the forecast precision of the Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN), the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel (DL), and a random walk model. The empirical results suggest that both outperform the random walk at short horizons (one-month) and that the FSN model outperforms the DL at the one- and three-months forecasting horizon. The conclusions provided in this paper are important for policy makers, fixed income portfolio managers, financial institutions and academics.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 117 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
European yield curve; Dynamic Nelson–Siegel; Functional signal plus noise; Forecasting; Term structure of interest rates;
Other versions of this item:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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