A real-time trading rule
AbstractIf prices of assets are not aligned to their net present value, a trading strategy may be implemented when actual prices revert to fundamentals. A real-time trading strategy is introduced based on the assumption that reversion occurs in later periods. The fundamental price is constructed in real time using the net present value approach which requires the series for expected dividends, expected returns and expected dividend growth rate. These series, typically unobservable, are derived from a structural state space model. A battery of tests comparing the rule to the passive Buy and Hold Strategy illustrates that the rule is marginally better for shorter horizons.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27148.
Date of creation: 06 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Trading Rule; Net Present Value; State Space Modeling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-12-18 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:wop:humbsf:2000-15 is not listed on IDEAS
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1985.
"An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
758, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. " An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-87, July.
- Bulkley, George & Tonks, Ian, 1992. "Trading Rules and Excess Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 365-382, September.
- Cochrane, John H, 1992.
"Explaining the Variance of Price-Dividend Ratios,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 243-80.
- Avramov, Doron, 2002. "Stock return predictability and model uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 423-458, June.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1989.
"Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- Allen, D.E & Yang, W, 2004. "Do UK stock prices deviate from fundamentals?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 373-383.
- Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
- Bulkley, George & Taylor, Nick, 1996. "A cross-section test of the present value model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 295-306, February.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-258.
- Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2004. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 208-223, May.
- Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002.
"The Equity Premium,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, 04.
- Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008.
"Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
- Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," NBER Working Papers 12109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Granger, Clive & Timmermann, Allan G, 2002.
"Efficient Market Hypothesis and Forecasting,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October.
- Brown, Philip & Clarke, Alex & How, Janice C. Y. & Lim, Kadir, 2000. "The accuracy of management dividend forecasts in Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 309-331, July.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "An Unbiased and Powerful Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Working Papers 2001-06, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Cuthbertson, Keith & Hyde, Stuart, 2002. "Excess volatility and efficiency in French and German stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 399-418, May.
- Doron Avramov, 2004. "Stock Return Predictability and Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 699-738.
- Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November.
- Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the stock price-dividend relation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 583-606, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.