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Alternative Measures of Core Inflation in Chile

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Author Info
Felipe Córdova
María Carolina Grünwald
Michael Pedersen

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Abstract

Inflation targeting central banks usually base their objectives on headline inflation, which is often affected by price movements of specific components whose behavior makes it difficult to extract clear signals about the inflationary outlook relevant for the monetary policy horizon. For this reason, several measures of underlying (core) inflation have been proposed with the purpose of removing this “noise”. This paper presents some alternatives calculated for the Chilean economy: three different measures that trim CPI components according to criteria of price changes and volatility, and two measures that re-weight the components according to historical volatility. In general terms, we find that the measures trimming away items with extreme price changes or high volatility are informative about the inflationary outlook given that they are unbiased with respect to the seasonally adjusted CPI and superior to other measures in tracking the headline inflation trend.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 471.

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Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:471

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 06/97, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juan-Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2003. "A First Assessment of Some Measures of Core Inflation for the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4, pages 269-306, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Diewert, W.E., 1995. "On the Stochastic Approach to Index Numbers," UBC Departmental Archives 95-31, UBC Department of Economics.
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  5. Thérèse Laflèche, 1997. "Statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Autumn), pages 29-47. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael Pedersen, 2006. "An Alternative Measure of Core Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 366, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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