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Economic sentiment: Disentangling private information from public knowledge

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  • Heinisch, Katja
  • Lindner, Axel

Abstract

This paper addresses a general problem with the use of surveys as source of information about the state of an economy: Answers to surveys are highly dependent on information that is publicly available, while only additional information that is not already publicly known has the potential to improve a professional forecast. We propose a simple procedure to disentangle the private information of agents from knowledge that is already publicly known for surveys that ask for general as well as for private prospects. Our results reveal the potential of our proposed technique for the usage of European Commissions' consumer surveys for economic forecasting for Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Heinisch, Katja & Lindner, Axel, 2021. "Economic sentiment: Disentangling private information from public knowledge," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:152021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer confidence; private information; public information; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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