Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Short run and alternative macroeconomic forecasts for Romania and strategies to improve their accuracy

Contents:

Author Info

  • BRATU (SIMIONESCU) MIHAELA

    ()
    (Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest)

  • MARIN ERIKA

    ()
    (Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest)

Abstract

For the same macroeconomic variables more predictions can be made, using different forecasting forecasting. The most important step is the choice of the prediction with the highest degree of accuracy, this being used in establishing the governmental policies or the monetary policy by the central bank. We made short run forecasts (January 2012-March 2012) for variables as inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate for Romania using techniques like: econometric modeling, exponential smoothing technique and moving average method. In order to improve the forecasts accuracy, we used two empirical strategies: making combined prognosis and building the forecasts based on historical accuracy indicators. The predictions based on exponential smoothing technique have the highest degree of acuracy, being superior to those got applying the strategies of improving the accuracy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/euroeconomica/article/view/1426/1418
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Danubius University of Galati in its journal Euroeconomica.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 4(31) (November)
Pages: 106-128

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:dug:journl:y:2012:i:4:p:106-128

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.euroeconomica-danubius.ro/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: forecasts; accuracy; econometric models; smoothing exponential techniques;

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dug:journl:y:2012:i:4:p:106-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Florian Nuta).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.