IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jouret/v92y2016i1p25-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying Demand Effects in a Large Network of Product Categories

Author

Listed:
  • Gelper, Sarah
  • Wilms, Ines
  • Croux, Christophe

Abstract

Planning marketing mix strategies requires retailers to understand within- as well as cross-category demand effects. Most retailers carry products in a large variety of categories, leading to a high number of such demand effects to be estimated. At the same time, we do not expect cross-category effects between all categories. This paper outlines a methodology to estimate a parsimonious product category network without prior constraints on its structure. To do so, sparse estimation of the Vector AutoRegressive Market Response Model is presented. We find that cross-category effects go beyond substitutes and complements, and that categories have asymmetric roles in the product category network. Destination categories are most influential for other product categories, while convenience and occasional categories are most responsive. Routine categories are moderately influential and moderately responsive.

Suggested Citation

  • Gelper, Sarah & Wilms, Ines & Croux, Christophe, 2016. "Identifying Demand Effects in a Large Network of Product Categories," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 25-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jouret:v:92:y:2016:i:1:p:25-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jretai.2015.05.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022435915000536
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jretai.2015.05.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rajagopalan, S. & Xia, Nan, 2012. "Product variety, pricing and differentiation in a supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 84-93.
    2. V. Kumar & Trichy V. Krishnan, 2002. "Multinational Diffusion Models: An Alternative Framework," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 318-330, July.
    3. Leeflang, Peter S.H. & Parreño Selva, Josefa & Van Dijk, Albert & Wittink, Dick R., 2008. "Decomposing the sales promotion bump accounting for cross-category effects," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 201-214.
    4. Ailawadi, Kusum L. & Beauchamp, J.P. & Donthu, Naveen & Gauri, Dinesh K. & Shankar, Venkatesh, 2009. "Communication and Promotion Decisions in Retailing: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 42-55.
    5. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    6. Inseong Song & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2006. "Measuring Cross-Category Price Effects with Aggregate Store Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(10), pages 1594-1609, October.
    7. Rakesh Niraj & V. Padmanabhan & P. B. Seetharaman, 2008. "Research Note—A Cross-Category Model of Households' Incidence and Quantity Decisions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 225-235, 03-04.
    8. Baghestani, Hamid, 1991. "Cointegration Analysis of the Advertising-Sales Relationship," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 671-681, December.
    9. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    10. Hsu, Nan-Jung & Hung, Hung-Lin & Chang, Ya-Mei, 2008. "Subset selection for vector autoregressive processes using Lasso," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 3645-3657, March.
    11. van Everdingen, Y.M. & Fok, D. & Stremersch, S., 2008. "Modeling Global Spill-Over of New Product Takeoff," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-067-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    12. Bandyopadhyay, Subir, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of Cross-Category Competition: Theory, Tests and Applications," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 85(4), pages 468-479.
    13. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    14. Sanghak Lee & Jaehwan Kim & Greg M. Allenby, 2013. "A Direct Utility Model for Asymmetric Complements," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 454-470, May.
    15. Marnik G. Dekimpe & Dominique M. Hanssens, 1995. "The Persistence of Marketing Effects on Sales," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21.
    16. Gefang, Deborah, 2014. "Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
    17. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    18. Csilla Horváth & Dennis Fok, 2013. "Moderating Factors of Immediate, Gross, and Net Cross-Brand Effects of Price Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 127-152, July.
    19. Chatterjee, A. & Lahiri, S. N., 2011. "Bootstrapping Lasso Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 608-625.
    20. Andrew Ainslie & Peter E. Rossi, 1998. "Similarities in Choice Behavior Across Product Categories," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 91-106.
    21. Vincent R. Nijs & Shuba Srinivasan & Koen Pauwels, 2007. "Retail-Price Drivers and Retailer Profits," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 473-487, 07-08.
    22. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Richard A. Briesch & William R. Dillon & Edward J. Fox, 2013. "Category Positioning and Store Choice: The Role of Destination Categories," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 488-509, May.
    24. Lukas Meier & Sara Van De Geer & Peter Bühlmann, 2008. "The group lasso for logistic regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 53-71, February.
    25. Jan-Benedict E. M. Steenkamp & Vincent R. Nijs & Dominique M. Hanssens & Marnik G. Dekimpe, 2005. "Competitive Reactions to Advertising and Promotion Attacks," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 35-54, September.
    26. G. Dekimpe, Marnik & Hanssens, Dominique M. & Silva-Risso, Jorge M., 1998. "Long-run effects of price promotions in scanner markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 269-291, November.
    27. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    28. Vincent R. Nijs & Marnik G. Dekimpe & Jan-Benedict E.M. Steenkamps & Dominique M. Hanssens, 2001. "The Category-Demand Effects of Price Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-22, September.
    29. Shuba Srinivasan & Koen Pauwels & Dominique M. Hanssens & Marnik G. Dekimpe, 2004. "Do Promotions Benefit Manufacturers, Retailers, or Both?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 617-629, May.
    30. Peter Zubcsek & Miklos Sarvary, 2011. "Advertising to a social network," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 71-107, March.
    31. Paulo Albuquerque & Bart J. Bronnenberg & Charles J. Corbett, 2007. "A Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Global Diffusion of ISO 9000 and ISO 14000 Certification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 451-468, March.
    32. Puneet Manchanda & Asim Ansari & Sunil Gupta, 1999. "The “Shopping Basket”: A Model for Multicategory Purchase Incidence Decisions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 95-114.
    33. Ma, Yu & Seetharaman, P.B. & Narasimhan, Chakravarthi, 2012. "Modeling Dependencies in Brand Choice Outcomes Across Complementary Categories," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 47-62.
    34. Jianqing Fan & Jinchi Lv & Lei Qi, 2011. "Sparse High-Dimensional Models in Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 291-317, September.
    35. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    36. Pradeep Chintagunta & Dominique Hanssens & John Hauser & Sinan Aral & Anand Bodapati & Eric Bradlow & Theodoros Evgeniou & David Godes & Dan Goldstein & P.K. Kannan & Peter Lenk & Rob McCulloch & Carl, 2013. "Call for Papers --- Marketing Science Special Issue on Big Data: Integrating Marketing, Statistics, and Computer Science," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 678-678, July.
    37. Manish Gangwar & Nanda Kumar & Ram C. Rao, 2014. "Consumer Stockpiling and Competitive Promotional Strategies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 94-113, January.
    38. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    39. Ming Yuan & Yi Lin, 2006. "Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(1), pages 49-67, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karray, Salma & Martín-Herrán, Guiomar & Zaccour, Georges, 2020. "Pricing of demand-related products: Can ignoring cross-category effect be a smart choice?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    2. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2017. "A network analysis of the volatility of high dimensional financial series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 581-605, April.
    3. Gür Ali, Özden & Gürlek, Ragıp, 2020. "Automatic Interpretable Retail forecasting with promotional scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1389-1406.
    4. Mou, Shandong & Robb, David J. & DeHoratius, Nicole, 2018. "Retail store operations: Literature review and research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(2), pages 399-422.
    5. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2015. "Networks, Dynamic Factors, and the Volatility Analysis of High-Dimensional Financial Series," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Alexander Faehnle & Mariangela Guidolin, 2021. "Dynamic Pricing Recognition on E-Commerce Platforms with VAR Processes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2021. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2102.11780, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    8. Agarwal, Manoj K. & Ma, Zecong & Park, Chang Hee & Zheng, Yilong, 2022. "The impact of a manufacturer’s financial liquidity on its market strategies and pricing and promotion decisions in retail grocery markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 844-857.
    9. Keun Hee Lee & Mali Abdollahian & Sergei Schreider & Sona Taheri, 2023. "Supply Chain Demand Forecasting and Price Optimisation Models with Substitution Effect," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, May.
    10. Karray, Salma & Sigue, Simon P., 2016. "Should companies jointly promote their complementary products when they compete in other product categories?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 620-630.
    11. Luca Barbaglia & Christophe Croux & Ines Wilms, 2017. "Volatility spillovers and heavy tails: a large t-Vector AutoRegressive approach," Working Papers of Department of Decision Sciences and Information Management, Leuven 590528, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Decision Sciences and Information Management, Leuven.
    12. Barbaglia, Luca & Croux, Christophe & Wilms, Ines, 2020. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets: A large t-vector autoregressive approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Hanno Reuvers & Etienne Wijler, 2021. "Sparse Generalized Yule-Walker Estimation for Large Spatio-temporal Autoregressions with an Application to NO2 Satellite Data," Papers 2108.02864, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Rossini, Luca, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 97-115.
    2. Nicholson, William B. & Matteson, David S. & Bien, Jacob, 2017. "VARX-L: Structured regularization for large vector autoregressions with exogenous variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 627-651.
    3. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2015. "Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage," Working Papers 15-07, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    4. Roberto Casarin & Fausto Corradin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Nguyen Domenico Sartore & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "A Scoring Rule for Factor and Autoregressive Models Under Misspecification," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(2), pages 66-103, June.
    5. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR)," Working Papers 2016:20, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Diego Vidaurre & Concha Bielza & Pedro Larrañaga, 2013. "A Survey of L1 Regression," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 81(3), pages 361-387, December.
    7. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    8. Gür Ali, Özden & Gürlek, Ragıp, 2020. "Automatic Interpretable Retail forecasting with promotional scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1389-1406.
    9. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    10. Kim, Chul & Jun, Duk Bin & Park, Sungho, 2018. "Capturing flexible correlations in multiple-discrete choice outcomes using copulas," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 34-59.
    11. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    12. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    13. Vincent R. Nijs & Shuba Srinivasan & Koen Pauwels, 2007. "Retail-Price Drivers and Retailer Profits," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 473-487, 07-08.
    14. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2019. "Bayesian compressed vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 135-154.
    15. Ricardo P. Masini & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Eduardo F. Mendes, 2023. "Machine learning advances for time series forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 76-111, February.
    16. Ma, Yu & Seetharaman, P.B. & Narasimhan, Chakravarthi, 2012. "Modeling Dependencies in Brand Choice Outcomes Across Complementary Categories," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 47-62.
    17. Guyt, Jonne, 2015. "Consumer choice models on the effect of promotions in retailing," Other publications TiSEM c310f652-d725-4764-aac7-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    19. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian Inference in Large Vector Autoregressions with Hierarchical Shrinkage," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-07, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    20. Mogliani, Matteo & Simoni, Anna, 2021. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: Estimation, selection, and prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 833-860.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jouret:v:92:y:2016:i:1:p:25-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-retailing .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.