IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1708.02073.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Volatility Spillovers and Heavy Tails: A Large t-Vector AutoRegressive Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Barbaglia
  • Christophe Croux
  • Ines Wilms

Abstract

Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers - are studied using the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model. We account for the possible fat-tailed distribution of the VAR model errors using a VAR model with errors following a multivariate Student t-distribution with unknown degrees of freedom. Moreover, we study volatility spillovers among a large number of assets. To this end, we use penalized estimation of the VAR model with t-distributed errors. We study volatility spillovers among energy, biofuel and agricultural commodities and reveal bidirectional volatility spillovers between energy and biofuel, and between energy and agricultural commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Barbaglia & Christophe Croux & Ines Wilms, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers and Heavy Tails: A Large t-Vector AutoRegressive Approach," Papers 1708.02073, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1708.02073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.02073
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2010. "Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 29-56, Winter.
    2. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
    3. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    4. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2015. "The relationship between agricultural commodity prices, crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates: a panel VAR approach and causality analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 403-434, May.
    5. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2017. "A network analysis of the volatility of high dimensional financial series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 581-605, April.
    6. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 685-738.
    7. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    8. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
    9. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Fulvio Corsi & Stefan Mittnik & Christian Pigorsch & Uta Pigorsch, 2008. "The Volatility of Realized Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 46-78.
    11. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    12. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1155-1164.
    13. Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Measuring volatility with the realized range," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 181-207, May.
    14. Peng Ding, 2016. "On the Conditional Distribution of the Multivariate Distribution," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(3), pages 293-295, July.
    15. Caporin, Massimiliano & Velo, Gabriel G., 2015. "Realized range volatility forecasting: Dynamic features and predictive variables," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 98-112.
    16. Bauer, Gregory H. & Vorkink, Keith, 2011. "Forecasting multivariate realized stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 93-101, January.
    17. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    18. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    19. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    20. Uwe Hassler & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2016. "Quantile Regression for Long Memory Testing: A Case of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 693-724.
    21. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    22. Kim Christensen & Mark Podolskij & Mathias Vetter, 2009. "Bias-correcting the realized range-based variance in the presence of market microstructure noise," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 239-268, April.
    23. Laurent A. F. Callot & Anders B. Kock & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2017. "Modeling and Forecasting Large Realized Covariance Matrices and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 140-158, January.
    24. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    25. Markku Lanne & Henri Nyberg, 2016. "Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Linear and Nonlinear Multivariate Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 595-603, August.
    26. Gelper, Sarah & Wilms, Ines & Croux, Christophe, 2016. "Identifying Demand Effects in a Large Network of Product Categories," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 25-39.
    27. Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 459-468, October.
    28. Christopher R. Knittel & Robert S. Pindyck, 2016. "The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 85-110, April.
    29. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices, Crude Oil Prices and US Dollar Exchange Rates using Panel Data Econometric Methods," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 851-868.
    30. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tadahiro Nakajima & Yuki Toyoshima, 2020. "Examination of the Spillover Effects among Natural Gas and Wholesale Electricity Markets Using Their Futures with Different Maturities and Spot Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-14, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbaglia, Luca & Croux, Christophe & Wilms, Ines, 2020. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets: A large t-vector autoregressive approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Matteo Barigozzi & Christian Brownlees, 2019. "NETS: Network estimation for time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 347-364, April.
    3. Barbaglia, Luca & Wilms, Ines & Croux, Christophe, 2016. "Commodity dynamics: A sparse multi-class approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 62-72.
    4. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2014. "Realized volatility models and alternative Value-at-Risk prediction strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 101-116.
    5. Neda Todorova, 2012. "Volatility estimators based on daily price ranges versus the realized range," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 215-229, February.
    6. Meng, Xiaochun & Taylor, James W., 2018. "An approximate long-memory range-based approach for value at risk estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 377-388.
    7. Jiayuan Zhou & Feiyu Jiang & Ke Zhu & Wai Keung Li, 2019. "Time series models for realized covariance matrices based on the matrix-F distribution," Papers 1903.12077, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    8. Liu, Lily Y. & Patton, Andrew J. & Sheppard, Kevin, 2015. "Does anything beat 5-minute RV? A comparison of realized measures across multiple asset classes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 293-311.
    9. Bettendorf, Timo & Heinlein, Reinhold, 2019. "Connectedness between G10 currencies: Searching for the causal structure," Discussion Papers 06/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Diaa Noureldin & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2012. "Multivariate high‐frequency‐based volatility (HEAVY) models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 907-933, September.
    11. Wilms, Ines & Rombouts, Jeroen & Croux, Christophe, 2021. "Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 484-499.
    12. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Zhao, Longfeng & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, 2018. "Volatility connectedness in the Chinese banking system: Do state-owned commercial banks contribute more?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 205-230.
    13. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jose Olmo, 2016. "On Setting Day-Ahead Equity Trading Risk Limits: VaR Prediction at Market Close or Open?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-20, September.
    14. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2015. "Networks, Dynamic Factors, and the Volatility Analysis of High-Dimensional Financial Series," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    16. Miao, Ke & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Su, Liangjun, 2023. "High-dimensional VARs with common factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 155-183.
    17. Brož, Václav & Kočenda, Evžen, 2022. "Mortgage-related bank penalties and systemic risk among U.S. banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    18. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    19. Ge, S., 2020. "Text-Based Linkages and Local Risk Spillovers in the Equity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20115, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Lyócsa, Štefan & Todorova, Neda & Výrost, Tomáš, 2021. "Predicting risk in energy markets: Low-frequency data still matter," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1708.02073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.