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On Cointegration and Cryptocurrency Dynamics

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  • Keilbar, Georg
  • Zhang, Yanfen

Abstract

This paper aims to model the joint dynamics of cryptocurrencies in a nonstationary setting. In particular, we analyze the role of cointegration relationships within a large system of cryptocurrencies in a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. To enable analysis in a dynamic setting, we propose the COINtensity VECM, a nonlinear VECM specification accounting for a varying systemwide cointegration exposure. Our results show that cryptocurrencies are indeed cointegrated with a cointegration rank of four. We also find that all currencies are affected by these long term equilibrium relations. A simple statistical arbitrage trading strategy is proposed showing a great in-sample performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Keilbar, Georg & Zhang, Yanfen, 2020. "On Cointegration and Cryptocurrency Dynamics," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-012, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2020012
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    Cited by:

    1. Cuicui Lu & Weining Wang & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2018. "Using generalized estimating equations to estimate nonlinear models with spatial data," Papers 1810.05855, arXiv.org.
    2. Karsten Reichold, 2022. "A Residuals-Based Nonparametric Variance Ratio Test for Cointegration," Papers 2211.06288, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    3. Wang, Weining & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. & Xu, Mengshan, 2020. "Improved Estimation of Dynamic Models of Conditional Means and Variances," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-021, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    4. Konstantin Häusler & Hongyu Xia, 2022. "Indices on cryptocurrencies: an evaluation," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 149-167, September.
    5. Zinovyev, Elizaveta & Reule, Raphael C. G. & Härdle, Wolfgang, 2021. "Understanding Smart Contracts: Hype or hope?," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-004, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    6. Wang, Weining & Yu, Lining & Wang, Bingling, 2020. "Tail Event Driven Factor Augmented Dynamic Model," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-022, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    7. Jong-Min Kim & Chanho Cho & Chulhee Jun, 2022. "Forecasting the Price of the Cryptocurrency Using Linear and Nonlinear Error Correction Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-10, February.
    8. Konstantin Hausler & Wolfgang Karl Hardle, 2021. "Cryptocurrency Dynamics: Rodeo or Ascot?," Papers 2103.12461, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    9. Konstantin Hausler, 2022. "ETF construction on CRIX," Papers 2211.15260, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    10. Häusler, Konstantin & Härdle, Wolfgang, 2021. "Rodeo or ascot: Which hat to wear at the crypto race?," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-007, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; VECM; Nonstationarity; Cryptocurrencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General

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