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A Machine Learning Approach to Forecast Economic Recessions—An Italian Case Study

Author

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  • Giovanni Cicceri

    (Department of Engineering, University of Messina, 98166 Messina, Italy)

  • Giuseppe Inserra

    (Department of Economics, University of Messina, 98122 Messina, Italy)

  • Michele Limosani

    (Department of Economics, University of Messina, 98122 Messina, Italy)

Abstract

In economic activity, recessions represent a period of failure in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and usually are presented as episodic and non-linear. For this reason, they are difficult to predict and appear as one of the main problems in macroeconomics forecasts. A classic example turns out to be the great recession that occurred between 2008 and 2009 that was not predicted. In this paper, the goal is to give a different, although complementary, approach concerning the classical econometric techniques, and to show how Machine Learning (ML) techniques may improve short-term forecasting accuracy. As a case study, we use Italian data on GDP and a few related variables. In particular, we evaluate the goodness of fit of the forecasting proposed model in a case study of the Italian GDP. The algorithm is trained on Italian macroeconomic variables over the period 1995:Q1-2019:Q2. We also compare the results using the same dataset through Classic Linear Regression Model. As a result, both statistical and ML approaches are able to predict economic downturns but higher accuracy is obtained using Nonlinear Autoregressive with exogenous variables (NARX) model.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Cicceri & Giuseppe Inserra & Michele Limosani, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Forecast Economic Recessions—An Italian Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:241-:d:320277
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Franck Ramaharo & Gerzhino Rasolofomanana, 2023. "Nowcasting Madagascar's real GDP using machine learning algorithms," Papers 2401.10255, arXiv.org.
    4. Alena Vagaská & Miroslav Gombár & Antonín Korauš, 2022. "Mathematical Modeling and Nonlinear Optimization in Determining the Minimum Risk of Legalization of Income from Criminal Activities in the Context of EU Member Countries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-25, December.

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