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SARIMA damp trend grey forecasting model for airline industry

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  • Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo
  • Nieto, María Rosa

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to propose a new model that improves the Damp Trend Grey Model (DTGM) with a dynamic seasonal damping factor to forecast routes passengers demand (pax) in the air transportation industry. The model is called the SARIMA Damp Trend Grey Forecasting Model (SDTGM). In the DTGM, the damp trend factor is a static smoothing factor because it does not change over time, and therefore, it cannot capture the dynamic behavior of time series data. For this reason, the modification consists in using the trend and seasonality effects of time series data to calculate a dynamic damp trend factor as time grows. The DTGM damping factor is based on the forecasted data obtained by the GM(1,1) model; otherwise, the SDTGM calculates a seasonal damping factor based on historical data using a large amount of data points for short lead-times. The SDTGM has less uncertainty than the DTGM. The simulation results show that the SDTGM captures the seasonality effect and does not allow the forecast to exponentially grow. The SDTGM forecasts more reasonable routes pax for short lead-times when having a large amount of data points than the DTGM. The United States domestic air transport market data are used to compare the performance of the DTGM against the proposed SDTGM.

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  • Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo & Nieto, María Rosa, 2020. "SARIMA damp trend grey forecasting model for airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:82:y:2020:i:c:s0969699719301711
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2019.101736
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Seungju Nam & Sejong Choi & Georgia Edell & Amartya De & Woon-Kyung Song, 2023. "Comparative Analysis of the Aviation Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Industry in Northeast Asian Countries: A Suggestion for the Development of Korea’s MRO Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Chen, Hai-Bao & Pei, Ling-Ling & Zhao, Yu-Feng, 2021. "Forecasting seasonal variations in electricity consumption and electricity usage efficiency of industrial sectors using a grey modeling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Rafael Bernardo Carmona Benitez & Maria Rosa Nieto, 2023. "A methodology for calculating the unmet passenger demand in the air transportation industry," Papers 23003, Working Papers of Business and Economics School. Anahuac University (Mexico)..
    5. Wang, Zhanwei & Song, Woon-Kyung, 2020. "Sustainable airport development with performance evaluation forecasts: A case study of 12 Asian airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Xiong, Xin & Hu, Xi & Guo, Huan, 2021. "A hybrid optimized grey seasonal variation index model improved by whale optimization algorithm for forecasting the residential electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    7. Yin, Chen & Mao, Shuhua, 2023. "Fractional multivariate grey Bernoulli model combined with improved grey wolf algorithm: Application in short-term power load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Huang, Dong & Grifoll, Manel & Sanchez-Espigares, Jose A. & Zheng, Pengjun & Feng, Hongxiang, 2022. "Hybrid approaches for container traffic forecasting in the context of anomalous events: The case of the Yangtze River Delta region in the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Maria Rosa Nieto & Rafael Bernardo Carmona-Benítez, 2021. "An Approach to Measure the Performance and the Efficiency of Future Airport Infrastructure," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-28, August.

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