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The Recent Performance of the Canadian Forecasting Industry

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Author Info
Bryan Campbell
Steve Murphy
Abstract

This paper evaluates the forecast performance of Canadian financial institutions and forecasting firms between 1984 and 2003. The sample period is roughly double that of an earlier study. We divide the sample in two and investigate whether a particular institution has improved its relative standing over the last ten years. Results for two Quebec institutions -- the Banque Nationale (National Bank) and the Mouvement Desjardins -- are now included in the second part of the sample, whereas a complete dataset was not available for these two institutions during the 1980s. We look as well at the relative performance of individual forecasters compared to the consensus forecast (defined as the mean of the forecasts available during the period in question). The paper then compares the accuracy of the Canadian consensus forecast with the forecast offered by the OECD each December for a limited number of key macroeconomic variables.

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File URL: http://economics.ca/cgi/jab?journal=cpp&view=v32n1/CPPv32n1p023.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Toronto Press in its journal Canadian Public Policy.

Volume (Year): 32 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 23-40
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Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:32:y:2006:i:1:p:23-40

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  1. Marc Brisson & Bryan Campbell & John Galbraith, 2001. "Forecasting Some Low-Predictability Time Series Using Diffusion Indices," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-46, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Batchelor, Roy, 2001. "How Useful Are the Forecasts of Intergovernmental Agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the Consensus," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 225-35, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael J. Artis, 1996. "How Accurate are the IMF's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook," IMF Working Papers 96/89, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou, 2000. "A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 274, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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