A Comparison of U.S. Housing Starts Forecasts
AbstractThis study examines the Federal Reserve and private forecast accuracy of housing starts. We show that the Federal Reserve (private) forecasts are (generally) unbiased and superior to the random walk benchmark. At the shorter horizon, the Federal Reserve and private forecasts embody distinct predictive information, indicating that one can gain a significant improvement in forecast accuracy by combining the two sets of forecasts. At the longer horizon, our findings support the asymmetric information hypothesis that the Federal Reserve forecasts embody useful predictive information beyond that contained in the private forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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Greenbook forecasts; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Unbiasedness; Asymmetric information; Forecast combination;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
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