Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections

Contents:

Author Info

  • Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections — both “ current year ” and “ year ahead ” — for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections for world trade growth. The sample period differs somewhat between the variables, depending on data availability, but it runs until 1998 in all cases. Several evaluation criteria were used to assess the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections. These include an inspection of projection error summary statistics; comparisons with “naive” alternative forecasts; statistical tests for unbiasedness and efficiency; and testing for directional accuracy. In addition, the paper provides an examination of the performance of OECD Economic Outlook projections over different time periods. The findings suggest that, on the basis of the conventional statistical criteria, the current year projections outperform the year ahead projections ... Cet article analyse la précision des prévisions pour l’année courante et pour l’année suivante des Perspectives Économiques de l’OCDE pour la croissance du PIB, l’inflation, et la balance courante (en pourcentage du PIB) pour les 7 pays les plus importants, aussi que les prévisions pour la croissance du commerce international. La période d’analyse varie selon la variable en question, en fonction de la disponibilité des données, jusqu’en 1998 dans tous les cas. Plusieurs critères ont été utilisés pour évaluer la précision des prévisions, y compris les statistiques d’erreur de projection, les comparaisons avec des prévisions “naïves”, les tests statistiques de biais et d’efficience, et les tests de validité directionnelle. En outre, l’article examine la performance des prévisions des Perspectives Économiques de l’OCDE sur différentes périodes de temps. Les résultats montrent que, basées sur des critères statistiques conventionnels, les prévisions pour l’année courante sont ...

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/351822846618
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 274.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 19 Dec 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:274-en

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16
    Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
    Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.oecd.org
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: forecasting accuracy; error analysis; unbiasedness and efficiency; analyse d'erreur de prévision; précision des prévisions; biais et efficience;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Olafsdottir, Katrin & Sigurdsson, Kari, 2007. "Hversu vel tekst til með verðbólguspár greiningardeilda?
      [How accurate are the inflation forecasts published by the commercial banks?]
      ," MPRA Paper 18288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vuchelen, Jef & Gutierrez, Maria-Isabel, 2005. "A direct test of the information content of the OECD growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-117.
    3. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz qt9823140f, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Bryan Campbell & Steve Murphy, 2006. "The Recent Performance of the Canadian Forecasting Industry," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 32(1), pages 23-40, March.
    6. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2009. "How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 376-388, December.
    7. Olafsdottir, Katrin, 2006. "Úttekt á efnahagsspám Þjóðhagsstofnunar fyrir árin 1981-2002
      [The accuracy of the National Economic Institute‘s forecasts 1981-2002]
      ," MPRA Paper 18257, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:274-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.