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Are economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund politically biased? A public choice analysis

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  • Frank-Oliver Aldenhoff

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11558-006-9010-x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Review of International Organizations.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 239-260

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:revint:v:2:y:2007:i:3:p:239-260

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    Web page: http://www.springer.com/business/sociology/journal/11558

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    Related research

    Keywords: IMF; Economic forecasts; Political business cycles; D72; F33; F34;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
    3. Roland Vaubel, 2006. "Principal-agent problems in international organizations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 125-138, June.
    4. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche, 2004. "Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany: An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 399, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Fratianni, Michele & Pattison, John, 1982. "The Economics of International Organizations," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 244-62.
    6. Frey, Bruno S., 1984. "The public choice view of international political economy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(01), pages 199-223, December.
    7. Fratianni, Michele & Pattison, John C., 1976. "The economics of the OECD," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 75-140, January.
    8. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March.
    9. Prakash Loungani, 2000. "How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 00/77, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Beck, T.H.L. & Clarke, G. & Groff, A. & Keefer , P. & Walsh, P., 2001. "New tools in comparative political economy: The database of political institutions," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125517, Tilburg University.
    12. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
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    Cited by:
    1. Johan F.M. Swinnen & Thijs Vandemoortele & Mara Squicciarini, 2010. "The Market for Policy Communication," LICOS Discussion Papers 27210, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    2. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "The Politics of IMF Forecasts," KOF Working papers 07-176, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    3. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
    4. Andy Sumner, 2012. "Where Will the World’s Poor Live? An Update on Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion," Working Papers 305, Center for Global Development.
    5. Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
    6. Johan F.M. Swinnen, 2010. "The Right Price of Food: Reflections on the Political Economy of Policy Analysis and Communication," LICOS Discussion Papers 25910, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    7. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2014. "Fiscal Forecast Errors: Governments Versus Independent Agencies?," Papers RB2014/1/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Sumner, Andy, 2013. "Global poverty, aid, and middle-income countries: Are the country classifications moribund or is global poverty in the process of .nationalizing.?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
    10. Charles Kenny, Jonathan Karver, and Andy Sumner, 2012. "MDGs 2.0: What Goals, Targets, and Timeframe? - Working Paper 297," Working Papers 297, Center for Global Development.
    11. Roland Vaubel, 2011. "Comment on Conway (2010): The role of the International Monetary Fund in the financial crisis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 477-482, September.

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