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Comparison of range-based volatility estimators against integrated volatility in European emerging markets

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  • Arnerić, Josip
  • Matković, Mario
  • Sorić, Petar

Abstract

This paper explores the effectiveness of eight range-based volatility estimators for seven European emerging markets. It offers added value by: (i) finding a consistent and asymptotically unbiased estimator of integrated volatility for emerging markets, (ii) employing the upper tail dependence for comparison purposes, in addition to standard loss functions, and (iii) recommending the appropriate ex-post volatility measure in the lack of high-frequency data. When no strong preference for a specific estimator is found, the upper tail dependence measure is consulted, confirming the MSE-based ranking for Czech Republic, Greece, Poland, and Romania; and the QLIKE-based ranking for Bulgaria, Croatia, and Hungary.

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  • Arnerić, Josip & Matković, Mario & Sorić, Petar, 2019. "Comparison of range-based volatility estimators against integrated volatility in European emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 118-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:28:y:2019:i:c:p:118-124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.04.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Wei & Zhang, Haoyu & Jia, Lifen, 2022. "A novel two-stage method for well-diversified portfolio construction based on stock return prediction using machine learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Josip Arneriæ & Mario Matkoviæ, 2019. "Challenges of integrated variance estimation in emerging stock markets," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 713-739.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated volatility; Realized variance; OHLC estimator; Loss function; Upper tail dependence; Emerging market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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