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Cyclical and Causal Patterns of Inflation and GDP Growth

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Author Info
Arai, Mahmood () (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University)
Kinnwall, Mats () (Handelsbanken Markets)
Skogman Thoursie, Peter () (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University)

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Abstract

Empirical foundations for the view that high inflation impairs GDP growth are

examined using annual data for 115 countries over the period 1960-1995.

Taking into account country heterogeneity and time-specific symmetric shocks,

as well as endogeneity of inflation and dynamics of GDP growth we estimate

dynamic panel-data models of the effects of inflation on growth. We find no

evidence supporting the view that inflation is in general harmful to GDP

growth. On the other hand, there is a negative correlation between

contemporaneous intra-country inflation and growth for periods characterised

by positive oil-price shocks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers in Economics with number 2002:5.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 08 Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2002_0005

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Postal: Department of Economics, Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46 8 16 20 00
Fax: +46 8 16 14 25
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Web page: http://www.ne.su.se/
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Related research
Keywords: GDP GROWTH Inflation

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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  3. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
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    Other versions:
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Javier Andres & Ignacio Hernando, 1997. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence for the OECD," NBER Working Papers 6062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1987. "Why Does Money Affect Output? A Survey," Working papers 453, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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