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Information Content of Aggregate Implied Volatility Spread

Author

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  • Bing Han

    (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, Sichuan 611130, P.R. China)

  • Gang Li

    (Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

Abstract

Aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS), defined as the cross-sectional average difference in the implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put equity options, is significantly and positively related to future stock market returns at daily, weekly, and monthly to semiannual horizons. This return predictive power is incremental to existing return predictors, and it is significant both in sample and out of sample. Furthermore, IVS can forecast macroeconomic news up to one year ahead. The return predictability concentrates around macro news announcement. Common informed trading in equity options offers an integrated explanation for the ability of IVS to predict both future stock market returns and real economic activity. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Bing Han & Gang Li, 2021. "Information Content of Aggregate Implied Volatility Spread," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1249-1269, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:67:y:2021:i:2:p:1249-1269
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2019.3520
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