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Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns

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Author Info

  • Turan G. Bali

    ()
    (Department of Economics and Finance, Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College, New York, New York 10010)

  • Armen Hovakimian

    ()
    (Department of Economics and Finance, Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College, New York, New York 10010)

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates whether realized and implied volatilities of individual stocks can predict the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. Although the levels of volatilities from the physical and risk-neutral distributions cannot predict future returns, there is a significant relation between volatility spreads and expected stock returns. Portfolio level analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a negative and significant relation between expected returns and the realized-implied volatility spread that can be viewed as a proxy for volatility risk. The results also provide evidence for a significantly positive link between expected returns and the call-put options' implied volatility spread that can be considered as a proxy for jump risk. The parameter estimates from the VAR-bivariate-GARCH model indicate significant information flow from individual equity options to individual stocks, implying informed trading in options by investors with private information.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1090.1063
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 55 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 11 (November)
    Pages: 1797-1812

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:55:y:2009:i:11:p:1797-1812

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    Related research

    Keywords: realized volatility; implied volatility; volatility risk; jump risk; stock returns;

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    Cited by:
    1. Podolski, Edward J. & Truong, Cameron & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2013. "Informed options trading prior to takeovers – Does the regulatory environment matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 286-305.
    2. Atilgan, Yigit, 2014. "Volatility spreads and earnings announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 205-215.
    3. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2011. "Explaining the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle using Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1971-1983, August.
    4. Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf & Saßning, Sven, 2014. "Portfolio optimization using forward-looking information," CFR Working Papers 11-10 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    5. Diavatopoulos, Dean & Doran, James S. & Fodor, Andy & Peterson, David R., 2012. "The information content of implied skewness and kurtosis changes prior to earnings announcements for stock and option returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 786-802.
    6. Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2013. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," NBER Working Papers 19590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Delisle, R. Jared & Lee, Bong Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2012. "The dynamic relation between short sellers, option traders, and aggregate returns," MPRA Paper 42566, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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