IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v28y2008i11p1013-1039.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The information content in implied idiosyncratic volatility and the cross‐section of stock returns: Evidence from the option markets

Author

Listed:
  • Dean Diavatopoulos
  • James S. Doran
  • David R. Peterson

Abstract

Current literature is inconclusive as to whether idiosyncratic risk influences future stock returns and the direction of the impact. Earlier studies are based on historical realized volatility. Implied volatilities from option prices represent the market's assessment of future risk and are likely a superior measure to historical realized volatility. Implied idiosyncratic volatilities on firms with traded options are used to examine the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and future returns. A strong positive link was found between implied idiosyncratic risk and future returns. After considering the impact of implied idiosyncratic volatility, historical realized idiosyncratic volatility is unimportant. This performance is strongly tied to small size and high book‐to‐market equity firms. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28: 1013–1039, 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Dean Diavatopoulos & James S. Doran & David R. Peterson, 2008. "The information content in implied idiosyncratic volatility and the cross‐section of stock returns: Evidence from the option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1013-1039, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:11:p:1013-1039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
    2. Li, Lei & Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "Exogenous shocks and the spillover effects between uncertainty and oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 224-234.
    3. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    4. Do, Viet & Truong, Cameron & Vu, Tram, 2022. "Options listings and loan contract terms: Information versus risk-shifting," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Borochin, Paul & Zhao, Yanhui, 2019. "Belief heterogeneity in the option markets and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    6. James S. Doran & Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger, 2010. "Option Market Efficiency and Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 560-590, June.
    7. Chen, Yi-Ling & Wang, Ming-Chun & Lin, Jun-Biao & Huang, Ming-Chih, 2022. "How financial crises affect the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 96-113.
    8. Xiafei Li & Chris Brooks & Joëlle Miffre, 2009. "The Value Premium and Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9-10), pages 1252-1272.
    9. Chris Brooks & Xiafei Li & Joelle Miffre, 2009. "Time Varying Volatility and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns Â," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2009-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    10. James S. Doran & Danling Jiang & David R. Peterson, 2011. "Gambling Preference and the New Year Effect of Assets with Lottery Features," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(3), pages 685-731.
    11. Zhi Dong & Tien Foo Sing, 2021. "Do Investors Overreact for Property and Financial Service Sectors?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(1), pages 79-123, April.
    12. Moll, Cliff R. & Huffman, Stephen P., 2016. "The incremental information content of innovations in implied idiosyncratic volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 33-44.
    13. Jun-Biao Lina & Ping-Yeh Su, 0. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and Liquidity Risk: How they have Explanatory Power in Stock Returns," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 0, pages 2.
    14. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    15. Jun-Biao Lina & Ping-Yeh Su, 2017. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and Liquidity Risk: How they have Explanatory Power in Stock Returns," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-2.
    16. Barbara A. Bliss & Jeffrey A. Clark & R. Jared DeLisle, 2018. "Bank risk, financial stress, and bank derivative use," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 804-821, July.
    17. Stephan Süss, 2012. "The pricing of idiosyncratic risk: evidence from the implied volatility distribution," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(2), pages 247-267, June.
    18. Kevin Aretz & Ming-Tsung Lin & Ser-Huang Poon, 2023. "Moneyness, Underlying Asset Volatility, and the Cross-Section of Option Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 289-323.
    19. DeLisle, R. Jared & Diavatopoulos, Dean & Fodor, Andy & Kassa, Haimanot, 2022. "Variation in option implied volatility spread and future stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 152-160.
    20. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron & Chen, Nir, 2019. "Idiosyncratic volatility, the VIX and stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 431-441.
    21. Po-Chin Wu & Sheng-Chieh Pan & Xue-Ling Tai, 2015. "Non-linearity, persistence and spillover effects in stock returns: the role of the volatility index," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 597-613, August.
    22. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Chen, Che-Ying, 2016. "Re-examining risk premiums in the Fama–French model: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 154-171.
    23. Kelley Bergsma & Vivien Csapi & Dean Diavatopoulos & Andy Fodor, 2020. "Show me the money: Option moneyness concentration and future stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 761-775, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:11:p:1013-1039. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.