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Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade

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Author Info
David Easley (Department of Economics, Cornell University,)
Maureen O'Hara (Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University,)
P.S. Srinivas (The World Bank)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the informational role of transactions volume in options markets. We develop an asymmetric information model in which informed traders may trade in option or equity markets. We show conditions under which informed traders trade options, and we investigate the implications of this for the linkage between markets. Our model predicts an important informational role for the volume of particular types of option trades. We empirically test our model's hypotheses with intraday option data. Our main empirical result is that negative and positive option volumes contain information about future stock prices. Copyright The American Finance Association 1998.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 53 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 431-465
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:431-465

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  1. Jun Pan & Allen Poteshman, 2004. "The Information of Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 10925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael R. King & Maksym Padalko, 2005. "Pre-Bid Run-Ups Ahead of Canadian Takeovers: How Big Is the Problem?," Working Papers 05-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chan, Kalok & Menkveld, Albert J. & Yang, Zhishu, 2006. "Are Domestic Investors Better Informed than Foreign Investors? : Evidence from the Perfectly Segmented Market in China," Serie Research Memoranda 0004, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rafiqul Bhuyan, 2002. "Information, Alternative Markets, and Security Price Processes: A Survey of Literature," Finance 0211002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Abad & Antonio Rubia, 2005. "Modelos De Estimacion De La Probabilidad De Negociacion Informada: Una Comparacion Metodologica En El Mercado Español," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-12, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  6. de Jong, Cyriel & Koedijk, Kees & Schnitzlein, Charles, 2002. "Stock Market Quality in the Prescence of a Traded Option," CEPR Discussion Papers 3173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jong, C.M. de, 2001. "Informed Option Trading Strategies," Research Paper ERS-2001-55-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ghulam Sarwar, 2004. "The informational role of option trading volume in the S&P 500 futures options markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(16), pages 1197-1210, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Young-Hye Cho & Robert F. Engle, 1999. "Modeling the Impacts of Market Activity on Bid-Ask Spreads in the Option Market," NBER Working Papers 7331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Satoru Kanoh & Asuka Takeuchi, 2006. "An Analysis of Option Pricing in the Japanese Market," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-145, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Doug Steigerwald & Richard Vagnoni, 2001. "Option Market Microstructure and Stochastic Volatility," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 17-01, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
  13. Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Andrei Kirilenko, . "Securities Transaction Taxes and Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 01/51, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  15. Acharya, Viral V & Johnson, Tim, 2005. "Insider Trading in Credit Derivatives," CEPR Discussion Papers 5180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. K. John & A. Koticha & R. Narayanan, . "Margin Rules, Informed Trading in Derivatives and Price Dynamics," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-047, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  17. Nam, Jouahn & Wang, Jun & Zhang, Ge, 2004. "Strategic trading against retail investors with disposition effects," Working Papers 2004-11, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  18. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  19. Joseph K.W. Fung, 2006. "Order Imbalance and the Pricing of Index Futures," Working Papers 132006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  20. Wen-Hsiu Kuo & Ching-Chung Lin & Liu-Hsiang Hsu, 2007. "The impact of foreign trading information on emerging futures markets: a study of Taiwan's unique data set," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 7(10), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
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