IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v75y2017icp98-108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Zhuo
  • Lu, Andrea

Abstract

This paper investigates the source of price momentum in the stock market using information from options markets. We provide direct evidence of the gradual information diffusion model in Hong and Stein (1999): momentum profits are larger for stocks whose information diffuses slowly into the stock market. We exploit the options markets to identify stocks with slow information diffusion speed. As informed traders trade options to realize the information that has not been fully incorporated in the stock price, we are able to enhance the momentum strategy by selecting winner/loser stocks with high growth/large drop in call option implied volatility. Our empirical strategy generates a risk-adjusted alpha of 1.8% per month over the 1996–2011 period, during which the simple momentum strategy fails to perform. The results are robust to the impact of earnings announcement, transaction costs, industry concentration, and choice of options’ moneyness and time-to-maturity. Finally, our finding is not driven by existing stock- or option-related characteristics that are known to improve momentum.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:98-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.11.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426616302060
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.11.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. Johnson, Travis L. & So, Eric C., 2012. "The option to stock volume ratio and future returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 262-286.
    3. Chan, Konan & Ge, Li & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2015. "Informational Content of Options Trading on Acquirer Announcement Return," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(5), pages 1057-1082, October.
    4. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
    5. Daniel, Kent & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2016. "Momentum crashes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 221-247.
    6. Cremers, Martijn & Driessen, Joost & Maenhout, Pascal & Weinbaum, David, 2008. "Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2706-2715, December.
    7. Andrea Frazzini & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2022. "Embedded Leverage [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 1-52.
    8. Israel, Ronen & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2013. "The role of shorting, firm size, and time on market anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 275-301.
    9. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
    10. Charles Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2005. "Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1073-1109, May.
    11. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, August.
    12. Manaster, Steven & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1982. "Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1043-1057, September.
    13. Yan, Shu, 2011. "Jump risk, stock returns, and slope of implied volatility smile," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 216-233, January.
    14. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    15. Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2014. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2279-2337, October.
    16. Anthony, Joseph H, 1988. " The Interrelation of Stock and Options Market Trading-Volume Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 949-964, September.
    17. Pavel Bandarchuk & Jens Hilscher, 2013. "Sources of Momentum Profits: Evidence on the Irrelevance of Characteristics," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 809-845.
    18. Andy C.W. Chui & Sheridan Titman & K.C. John Wei, 2010. "Individualism and Momentum around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 361-392, February.
    19. Goyal, Amit & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Cross-section of option returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 310-326, November.
    20. Alexander Hillert & Heiko Jacobs & Sebastian Müller, 2014. "Media Makes Momentum," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(12), pages 3467-3501.
    21. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    22. Roll, Richard & Schwartz, Eduardo & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2009. "Options trading activity and firm valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 345-360, December.
    23. S. P. Kothari & Susan Shu & Peter D. Wysocki, 2009. "Do Managers Withhold Bad News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 241-276, March.
    24. Hu, Jianfeng, 2014. "Does option trading convey stock price information?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 625-645.
    25. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    26. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Insider trading in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
    27. Lin, Tse-Chun & Lu, Xiaolong, 2015. "Why do options prices predict stock returns? Evidence from analyst tipping," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 17-28.
    28. Bali, Turan G. & Murray, Scott, 2013. "Does Risk-Neutral Skewness Predict the Cross-Section of Equity Option Portfolio Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 1145-1171, August.
    29. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    30. Figlewski, Stephen & Webb, Gwendolyn P, 1993. "Options, Short Sales, and Market Completeness," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 761-777, June.
    31. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    32. Zhi Da & Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka, 2014. "Frog in the Pan: Continuous Information and Momentum," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(7), pages 2171-2218.
    33. Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici & Fousseni Chabi-Yo, 2011. "A Generalized Measure of Riskiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1406-1423, August.
    34. Timothy C. Johnson, 2002. "Rational Momentum Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 585-608, April.
    35. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    36. Muravyev, Dmitriy & Pearson, Neil D. & Paul Broussard, John, 2013. "Is there price discovery in equity options?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 259-283.
    37. Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2010. "What Does the Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 641-662, June.
    38. Bhattacharya, Mihir, 1987. "Price Changes of Related Securities: The Case of Call Options and Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-15, March.
    39. Sagi, Jacob S. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2007. "Firm-specific attributes and the cross-section of momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 389-434, May.
    40. Cremers, Martijn & Weinbaum, David, 2010. "Deviations from Put-Call Parity and Stock Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 335-367, April.
    41. Charles M.C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Price Momentum and Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2017-2069, October.
    42. Yigit Atilgan & Turan G. Bali & K. Ozgur Demirtas, 2015. "Implied Volatility Spreads and Expected Market Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 87-101, January.
    43. Ge, Li & Lin, Tse-Chun & Pearson, Neil D., 2016. "Why does the option to stock volume ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 601-622.
    44. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    45. Roll, Richard & Schwartz, Eduardo & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2010. "O/S: The relative trading activity in options and stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 1-17, April.
    46. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, April.
    47. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2012. "Is momentum really momentum?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 429-453.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Ming-Yu & Chuang, Wen-I & Lo, Chien-Ling, 2021. "Options-implied information and the momentum cycle," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Li-Chuan Liao & Tzu-Pu Chang & Ping-Huang Wang, 2023. "Earnings Management Ethicality and Application in the Kenyan Public Sector: A Critical Review," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 16(1), pages 71-86, October.
    3. Maurice McCourt, 2022. "Permanent private equity: Market performance and transactions," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 339-383, June.
    4. Patrick Houlihan & Germán G. Creamer, 2017. "Can Sentiment Analysis and Options Volume Anticipate Future Returns?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 669-685, December.
    5. Jifei Wang & Lingjing Wang, 2019. "Residual Switching Network for Portfolio Optimization," Papers 1910.07564, arXiv.org.
    6. Ellington, Michael & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P. & Zheng, Yawen, 2022. "A study of cross-industry return predictability in the Chinese stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Jian Wang & Yanhuang Huang & Hongrui Feng & Xingjian Li & Shu Yan, 2023. "CEO incentive compensation and stock price momentum," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(S1), pages 975-1028, April.
    8. Ming‐Yu Liu, 2019. "Improving momentum strategies using residual returns and option‐implied information," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 499-521, April.
    9. Wouassom, Alain & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Tsitsianis, Nicholas, 2022. "Global momentum: The optimal trading approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    10. Xiaoyue Chen & Bin Li & Andrew C. Worthington, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and Australian stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(3), pages 3441-3474, September.
    11. Hannah Lea Hühn & Hendrik Scholz, 2018. "Alpha Momentum and Price Momentum," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, May.
    12. Ali Fayyaz Munir & Mohd Edil Abd. Sukor & Shahrin Saaid Shaharuddin, 2022. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Time-varying Contrarian Effect: Evidence From Emerging Stock Markets of South Asia," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    13. Hannah Lea Hühn & Hendrik Scholz, 2019. "Reversal and momentum patterns in weekly stock returns: European evidence," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 272-296, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    2. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    3. Du, Brian & Fung, Scott, 2018. "Directional information effects of options trading: Evidence from the banking industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 149-168.
    4. Liu, Dehong & Qiu, Qi & Hughen, J. Christopher & Lung, Peter, 2019. "Price discovery in the price disagreement between equity and option markets: Evidence from SSE ETF50 options of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 557-571.
    5. Gkionis, Konstantinos & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George & Stilger, Przemyslaw S., 2021. "Positive stock information in out-of-the-money option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Ming‐Yu Liu, 2019. "Improving momentum strategies using residual returns and option‐implied information," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 499-521, April.
    7. Bing Han & Gang Li, 2021. "Information Content of Aggregate Implied Volatility Spread," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1249-1269, February.
    8. Alejandro Bernales & Thanos Verousis & Nikolaos Voukelatos & Mengyu Zhang, 2020. "What do we know about individual equity options?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 67-91, January.
    9. Atilgan, Yigit, 2014. "Volatility spreads and earnings announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 205-215.
    10. Goetzmann, William N. & Huang, Simon, 2018. "Momentum in Imperial Russia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 579-591.
    11. Doojin Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2018. "The directional information content of options volumes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1533-1548, December.
    12. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:1:lobao is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Geoffrey Booth, G. & Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai Kin, 2016. "A risk-return explanation of the momentum-reversal “anomaly”," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 68-77.
    14. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2018. "Equity market momentum: A synthesis of the literature and suggestions for future work," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-296.
    15. Martin H. Schmidt, 2017. "Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(2), pages 201-256, May.
    16. Kelley Bergsma & Vivien Csapi & Dean Diavatopoulos & Andy Fodor, 2020. "Show me the money: Option moneyness concentration and future stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 761-775, May.
    17. Kelley Bergsma & Andy Fodor & Vijay Singal & Jitendra Tayal, 2020. "Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 769-804, September.
    18. Zhou, Yi, 2022. "Option trading volume by moneyness, firm fundamentals, and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Keming Li, 2021. "The effect of option trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, December.
    20. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    21. Lin, Zih-Ying & Chang, Chuang-Chang & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2018. "The impacts of asymmetric information and short sales on the illiquidity risk premium in the stock option market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 152-165.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Implied volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:98-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.