IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v40y2020i5p761-775.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Show me the money: Option moneyness concentration and future stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Kelley Bergsma
  • Vivien Csapi
  • Dean Diavatopoulos
  • Andy Fodor

Abstract

Informed traders often use options that are not in‐the‐money due to higher potential gains for a smaller upfront cost. Thus, trading activity by option moneyness should be a gauge of informed option trading. We construct a dollar volume‐weighted average moneyness measure to capture option trading activity at different moneyness levels. Stock returns increase with this measure, suggesting more trading activity in options with higher leverage predicts future stock returns. Our results hold cross‐sectionally and at the portfolio level yielding a Fama–French five‐factor α of 12% per year for all stocks and 33% per year for high implied volatility stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelley Bergsma & Vivien Csapi & Dean Diavatopoulos & Andy Fodor, 2020. "Show me the money: Option moneyness concentration and future stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 761-775, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:40:y:2020:i:5:p:761-775
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22071
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johnson, Travis L. & So, Eric C., 2012. "The option to stock volume ratio and future returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 262-286.
    2. Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar & Eric Ghysels, 2013. "Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 85-124, February.
    3. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
    4. DeLisle, R. Jared & Diavatopoulos, Dean & Fodor, Andy & Kassa, Haimanot, 2022. "Variation in option implied volatility spread and future stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 152-160.
    5. Back, Kerry, 1993. "Asymmetric Information and Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 435-472.
    6. Kalok Chan & Y. Peter Chung & Wai-Ming Fong, 2002. "The Informational Role of Stock and Option Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1049-1075.
    7. Dean Diavatopoulos & James S. Doran & David R. Peterson, 2008. "The information content in implied idiosyncratic volatility and the cross‐section of stock returns: Evidence from the option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1013-1039, November.
    8. Vijh, Anand M, 1990. "Liquidity of the CBOE Equity Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1157-1179, September.
    9. Chou, Pin-Huang & Huang, Tsung-Yu & Yang, Hung-Jeh, 2013. "Arbitrage risk and the turnover anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4172-4182.
    10. Manaster, Steven & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1982. "Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1043-1057, September.
    11. Yan, Shu, 2011. "Jump risk, stock returns, and slope of implied volatility smile," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 216-233, January.
    12. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    13. Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2014. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2279-2337, October.
    14. JoongHo Han & Da‐Hea Kim & Suk‐Joon Byun, 2017. "Informed Trading in the Options Market and Stock Return Predictability," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(11), pages 1053-1093, November.
    15. Baltussen, Guido & van Bekkum, Sjoerd & van der Grient, Bart, 2018. "Unknown Unknowns: Uncertainty About Risk and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 1615-1651, August.
    16. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    17. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    18. Hu, Jianfeng, 2014. "Does option trading convey stock price information?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 625-645.
    19. Chao‐Chun Chen & Shih‐Hua Wang, 2017. "Net Buying Pressure and Option Informed Trading," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 238-259, March.
    20. Stephen A. Ross, 1976. "Options and Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 75-89.
    21. Finucane, Thomas J., 1999. "A new measure of the direction and timing of information flow between markets1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-151, May.
    22. Patel, Vinay & Putniņš, Tālis J. & Michayluk, David & Foley, Sean, 2020. "Price discovery in stock and options markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    23. Byung Jin Kang & Tong Suk Kim & Sun‐Joong Yoon, 2010. "Information content of volatility spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 533-558, June.
    24. Muravyev, Dmitriy & Pearson, Neil D. & Paul Broussard, John, 2013. "Is there price discovery in equity options?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 259-283.
    25. Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2010. "What Does the Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 641-662, June.
    26. Bhattacharya, Mihir, 1987. "Price Changes of Related Securities: The Case of Call Options and Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-15, March.
    27. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, June.
    28. Doojin Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2018. "The directional information content of options volumes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1533-1548, December.
    29. Ge, Li & Lin, Tse-Chun & Pearson, Neil D., 2016. "Why does the option to stock volume ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 601-622.
    30. Chan, Kalok & Chung, Y Peter & Johnson, Herb, 1993. "Why Option Prices Lag Stock Prices: A Trading-Based Explanation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1957-1967, December.
    31. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "The Relationship Between Put and Call Option Prices: Comment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 183-184, March.
    32. Stephan, Jens A & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Intraday Price Change and Trading Volume Relations in the Stock and Stock Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 191-220, March.
    33. Roll, Richard & Schwartz, Eduardo & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2010. "O/S: The relative trading activity in options and stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 1-17, April.
    34. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    35. Richard Holowczak & Yusif Simaan & Liuren Wu, 2006. "Price discovery in the U.S. stock and stock options markets: A portfolio approach," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 37-65, January.
    36. Datar, Vinay T. & Y. Naik, Narayan & Radcliffe, Robert, 1998. "Liquidity and stock returns: An alternative test," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 203-219, August.
    37. Anand, Amber & Chakravarty, Sugato, 2007. "Stealth Trading in Options Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 167-187, March.
    38. Blau, Benjamin M. & Nguyen, Nga & Whitby, Ryan J., 2014. "The information content of option ratios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 179-187.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. George J. Jiang & Guanzhong Pan, 2022. "Speculation or hedging?—Options trading prior to FOMC announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 212-230, February.
    2. Mengyu Zhang & Thanos Verousis & Iordanis Kalaitzoglou, 2022. "Information and the arrival rate of option trading volume," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 605-644, April.
    3. Zin Yau Heng & Henry Leung, 2023. "The role of option‐based information on StockTwits, options trading volume, and stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 1091-1125, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alejandro Bernales & Thanos Verousis & Nikolaos Voukelatos & Mengyu Zhang, 2020. "What do we know about individual equity options?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 67-91, January.
    2. Du, Brian & Fung, Scott, 2018. "Directional information effects of options trading: Evidence from the banking industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 149-168.
    3. Chang‐Mo Kang & Donghyun Kim & Junyong Kim & Geul Lee, 2022. "Informed trading of out‐of‐the‐money options and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 247-279, June.
    4. Kelley Bergsma & Andy Fodor & Vijay Singal & Jitendra Tayal, 2020. "Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 769-804, September.
    5. Zhou, Yi, 2022. "Option trading volume by moneyness, firm fundamentals, and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Gkionis, Konstantinos & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George & Stilger, Przemyslaw S., 2021. "Positive stock information in out-of-the-money option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Doojin Ryu & Jinyoung Yu, 2021. "Informed options trading around holidays," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 658-685, May.
    8. Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
    9. Lee, Jaeram & Ryu, Doojin & Yang, Heejin, 2021. "Does vega-neutral options trading contain information?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 294-314.
    10. Doojin Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2018. "The directional information content of options volumes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1533-1548, December.
    11. Delisle, R. Jared & Lee, Bong Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2012. "The dynamic relation between short sellers, option traders, and aggregate returns," MPRA Paper 42566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Da‐Hea Kim, 2022. "Investment horizon and option market activity," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 923-958, May.
    13. Liu, Dehong & Qiu, Qi & Hughen, J. Christopher & Lung, Peter, 2019. "Price discovery in the price disagreement between equity and option markets: Evidence from SSE ETF50 options of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 557-571.
    14. Atilgan, Yigit, 2014. "Volatility spreads and earnings announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 205-215.
    15. Chin‐Ho Chen, 2021. "Investor sentiment, misreaction, and the skewness‐return relationship," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1427-1455, September.
    16. Rourke, Thomas, 2014. "The delta- and vega-related information content of near-the-money option market trading activity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 175-193.
    17. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.
    18. Haehean Park & Baeho Kim & Hyeongsop Shim, 2019. "A smiling bear in the equity options market and the cross‐section of stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1360-1382, November.
    19. Mohrschladt, Hannes & Schneider, Judith C., 2021. "Option-implied skewness: Insights from ITM-options," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:40:y:2020:i:5:p:761-775. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.