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Informed trading of out‐of‐the‐money options and market efficiency

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  • Chang‐Mo Kang
  • Donghyun Kim
  • Junyong Kim
  • Geul Lee

Abstract

We examine the stock return predictability of out‐of‐the‐money (OTM) put‐to‐call trading volume ratio (OTMPC). Our numerical analysis predicts that in the US equity option market, informed investors rarely write OTM options because the leverage effect is not sufficient to compensate for transaction costs. OTMPC thus captures the informed investors’ OTM put purchase volume relative to their OTM call purchase volume. After controlling for existing empirical proxies for informed option trading, we find that OTMPC predicts future stock returns and corporate news. The return predictability offers implementable stock portfolio strategies. Our findings suggest that market inefficiency can emerge from uninformed investors’ limited knowledge about how transaction costs influence the trading strategies of informed investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang‐Mo Kang & Donghyun Kim & Junyong Kim & Geul Lee, 2022. "Informed trading of out‐of‐the‐money options and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 247-279, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:45:y:2022:i:2:p:247-279
    DOI: 10.1111/jfir.12274
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