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آثار عجز الميزانية على الإدخار الخاص في الإقتصاد المغربي عبر نمذجة التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي
[Effects of Budget Deficit on Private Savings in Moroccan Economy using SVAR Modeling]

Author

Listed:
  • Ghassan, Hassan B.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate a structural VAR model using macroeconomic data of Moroccan Economy, which includes national saving rate and budget deficit rate, to test the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis. In this framework we separate saving and deficit movements into two types of shocks, associated with structural parameters, as we looking for two needles in haystack. We avoid to impose short run or long run constraints, which represents a methodological contribution and permits to obtain a best estimation of structural multipliers. The empirical results show that the mechanism of automatic stabilizing are indirectly checked in our sample. Our results suggest that Ricardian Equivalence did work in our sample, since private saving compensated a big fraction 90 per cent of the shock in budget deficit. This supports the interpretation that the large budget deficits, financed especially by debt, have been a very important factor behind the significant increase in real interest rates particularly in the eighties and early nineties.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghassan, Hassan B., 2003. "آثار عجز الميزانية على الإدخار الخاص في الإقتصاد المغربي عبر نمذجة التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي [Effects of Budget Deficit on Private Savings in Moroccan Economy using SVAR Modeling]," MPRA Paper 56435, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Feb 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56435
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget deficit; Saving; Ricardian Equivalence; SVAR; Morocco.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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