Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts
AbstractWe use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2012-07.
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2012-11-17 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2012-11-17 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-11-17 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-11-17 (Monetary Economics)
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